PaddockIQ

Strategy Lab

2026 Round 6 | Monaco Grand Prix

Race laps considered: 78

Data basis: current weekend sessions (primary signal) + previous same-GP editions (secondary context).

Hybrid strategy model active | ML train set: 2025 2025-R8, 2024-R8, 2023-R6, 2022-R7, 2021-R5 (49 team-rounds)

Pit Window + Stop Load Map

Pit windows and expected stop load by team.

L1 L13 L26 L39 L52 L65 L78
Ferrari Expected Stops: 1.57
HARD -> MEDIUM
MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L27-L32 Stop 2 Window: L53-L58
Mercedes Expected Stops: 1.55
HARD -> MEDIUM
MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L37-L42 Stop 2 Window: L54-L60
Audi Expected Stops: 1.44
HARD -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L38-L44 Stop 2 Window: -
Alpine Expected Stops: 1.48
HARD -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L38-L44 Stop 2 Window: -
Red Bull Racing Expected Stops: 1.38
MEDIUM -> HARD
Stop 1 Window: L35-L41 Stop 2 Window: -
Haas F1 Team Expected Stops: 1.38
HARD -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L40-L45 Stop 2 Window: -
McLaren Expected Stops: 1.53
MEDIUM -> HARD
HARD -> HARD
Stop 1 Window: L33-L39 Stop 2 Window: L54-L60
Racing Bulls Expected Stops: 1.55
HARD -> MEDIUM
MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L37-L42 Stop 2 Window: L54-L60
Williams Expected Stops: 1.53
MEDIUM -> HARD
HARD -> HARD
Stop 1 Window: L33-L39 Stop 2 Window: L54-L60
Aston Martin Expected Stops: 1.49
MEDIUM -> HARD
Stop 1 Window: L34-L40 Stop 2 Window: -
Cadillac Expected Stops: 1.52
MEDIUM -> HARD
HARD -> HARD
Stop 1 Window: L33-L39 Stop 2 Window: L54-L60

Highlights

  • Earliest projected first stop is Ferrari (L27-L32); latest is Haas F1 Team (L40-L45).
  • Highest stop load is Ferrari at 1.57 stops, while Red Bull Racing is lowest at 1.38.
  • Opening compound paths show early intent: Ferrari: HARD -> MEDIUM, then MEDIUM -> MEDIUM | Mercedes: HARD -> MEDIUM, then MEDIUM -> MEDIUM | Audi: HARD -> MEDIUM.

Team Strategy + Pit Stop Forecast

TeamExpected StopsP(1)P(2)P(3+)StrategyPit Window 1Pit1 TyrePit Window 2Pit2 Tyre
Ferrari 1.57 43.0% 57.0% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM -> MEDIUM L27-L32 HARD -> MEDIUM L53-L58 MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Mercedes 1.55 44.6% 55.4% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM -> MEDIUM L37-L42 HARD -> MEDIUM L54-L60 MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Audi 1.44 56.1% 43.9% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM L38-L44 HARD -> MEDIUM -
Alpine 1.48 52.0% 48.0% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM L38-L44 HARD -> MEDIUM -
Red Bull Racing 1.38 62.3% 37.7% 0.0% MEDIUM -> HARD L35-L41 MEDIUM -> HARD -
Haas F1 Team 1.38 61.7% 38.3% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM L40-L45 HARD -> MEDIUM -
McLaren 1.53 47.4% 52.6% 0.0% MEDIUM -> HARD -> HARD L33-L39 MEDIUM -> HARD L54-L60 HARD -> HARD
Racing Bulls 1.55 44.6% 55.4% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM -> MEDIUM L37-L42 HARD -> MEDIUM L54-L60 MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Williams 1.53 47.2% 52.8% 0.0% MEDIUM -> HARD -> HARD L33-L39 MEDIUM -> HARD L54-L60 HARD -> HARD
Aston Martin 1.49 50.7% 49.3% 0.0% MEDIUM -> HARD L34-L40 MEDIUM -> HARD -
Cadillac 1.52 48.4% 51.6% 0.0% MEDIUM -> HARD -> HARD L33-L39 MEDIUM -> HARD L54-L60 HARD -> HARD

Undercut vs Overcut Edge Map

Tactical edge view with trigger timing and viability scores.

Ferrari OVERCUT
Undercut
0.151 s
Overcut
0.516 s

Trigger: L27-L32 (center L30) | Viability U/O: 23% / 77%

Mercedes OVERCUT
Undercut
0.215 s
Overcut
0.777 s

Trigger: L37-L42 (center L40) | Viability U/O: 22% / 78%

Audi OVERCUT
Undercut
0.205 s
Overcut
0.777 s

Trigger: L38-L44 (center L41) | Viability U/O: 21% / 79%

Alpine OVERCUT
Undercut
0.149 s
Overcut
0.777 s

Trigger: L38-L44 (center L41) | Viability U/O: 16% / 84%

Red Bull Racing OVERCUT
Undercut
0.227 s
Overcut
0.474 s

Trigger: L35-L41 (center L38) | Viability U/O: 32% / 68%

Haas F1 Team OVERCUT
Undercut
0.182 s
Overcut
0.532 s

Trigger: L40-L45 (center L42) | Viability U/O: 25% / 75%

McLaren OVERCUT
Undercut
0.183 s
Overcut
0.777 s

Trigger: L33-L39 (center L36) | Viability U/O: 19% / 81%

Racing Bulls OVERCUT
Undercut
0.251 s
Overcut
0.625 s

Trigger: L37-L42 (center L40) | Viability U/O: 29% / 71%

Williams OVERCUT
Undercut
0.161 s
Overcut
0.777 s

Trigger: L33-L39 (center L36) | Viability U/O: 17% / 83%

Aston Martin OVERCUT
Undercut
0.160 s
Overcut
0.759 s

Trigger: L34-L40 (center L37) | Viability U/O: 17% / 83%

Cadillac OVERCUT
Undercut
0.192 s
Overcut
0.749 s

Trigger: L33-L39 (center L36) | Viability U/O: 20% / 80%

Highlights

  • Strongest undercut edge is Racing Bulls at 0.251s around L37-L42; strongest overcut edge is Mercedes at 0.777s.
  • 0 team(s) project a BALANCED call, while others show clearer bias between undercut and overcut viability.
  • Highest call asymmetry: Alpine U/O 16%/84% | Williams U/O 17%/83%.

Undercut / Overcut Strategy Table

TeamPreferred CallTrigger WindowTrigger LapUndercut Gain (s)Overcut Gain (s)Viability U/O
Ferrari OVERCUT L27-L32 L30 0.151 0.516 23% / 77%
Mercedes OVERCUT L37-L42 L40 0.215 0.777 22% / 78%
Audi OVERCUT L38-L44 L41 0.205 0.777 21% / 79%
Alpine OVERCUT L38-L44 L41 0.149 0.777 16% / 84%
Red Bull Racing OVERCUT L35-L41 L38 0.227 0.474 32% / 68%
Haas F1 Team OVERCUT L40-L45 L42 0.182 0.532 25% / 75%
McLaren OVERCUT L33-L39 L36 0.183 0.777 19% / 81%
Racing Bulls OVERCUT L37-L42 L40 0.251 0.625 29% / 71%
Williams OVERCUT L33-L39 L36 0.161 0.777 17% / 83%
Aston Martin OVERCUT L34-L40 L37 0.160 0.759 17% / 83%
Cadillac OVERCUT L33-L39 L36 0.192 0.749 20% / 80%

Stint Extension Decision Map

Extension recommendation for the opening stint around the first pit window.

Ferrari MARGINAL
Viability
65%
Penalty
0.081 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +1 laps | Window L27-L32

Mercedes MARGINAL
Viability
68%
Penalty
0.189 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +3 laps | Window L37-L42

Audi EXTEND
Viability
72%
Penalty
0.198 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +4 laps | Window L38-L44

Alpine MARGINAL
Viability
70%
Penalty
0.149 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +3 laps | Window L38-L44

Red Bull Racing EXTEND
Viability
72%
Penalty
0.198 s

MEDIUM stint | Extend up to +4 laps | Window L35-L41

Haas F1 Team EXTEND
Viability
83%
Penalty
0.162 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +6 laps | Window L40-L45

McLaren MARGINAL
Viability
68%
Penalty
0.189 s

MEDIUM stint | Extend up to +3 laps | Window L33-L39

Racing Bulls MARGINAL
Viability
68%
Penalty
0.189 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +3 laps | Window L37-L42

Williams MARGINAL
Viability
67%
Penalty
0.126 s

MEDIUM stint | Extend up to +2 laps | Window L33-L39

Aston Martin MARGINAL
Viability
67%
Penalty
0.126 s

MEDIUM stint | Extend up to +2 laps | Window L34-L40

Cadillac MARGINAL
Viability
68%
Penalty
0.189 s

MEDIUM stint | Extend up to +3 laps | Window L33-L39

Highlights

  • Best extension case is Haas F1 Team (EXTEND) with 83% viability and +6 laps on HARD.
  • Highest extension penalty appears at Audi (0.198s), so stretching beyond L38-L44 is likely costly.
  • Extension call mix across teams is EXTEND: 3, MARGINAL: 8, showing how constrained the first-stop phase is.

Stint Extension Table

TeamStint TyrePit WindowMax Extend (laps)Penalty (s)ViabilityCall
Ferrari HARD L27-L32 1 0.081 65% MARGINAL
Mercedes HARD L37-L42 3 0.189 68% MARGINAL
Audi HARD L38-L44 4 0.198 72% EXTEND
Alpine HARD L38-L44 3 0.149 70% MARGINAL
Red Bull Racing MEDIUM L35-L41 4 0.198 72% EXTEND
Haas F1 Team HARD L40-L45 6 0.162 83% EXTEND
McLaren MEDIUM L33-L39 3 0.189 68% MARGINAL
Racing Bulls HARD L37-L42 3 0.189 68% MARGINAL
Williams MEDIUM L33-L39 2 0.126 67% MARGINAL
Aston Martin MEDIUM L34-L40 2 0.126 67% MARGINAL
Cadillac MEDIUM L33-L39 3 0.189 68% MARGINAL

Defensive vs Aggressive Mode Map

Race-mode profile based on tactical edge, degradation and stop model.

Ferrari DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
18%
Defensive
82%

Primary trigger L27-L32 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Mercedes DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
5%
Defensive
95%

Primary trigger L37-L42 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Audi DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
5%
Defensive
95%

Primary trigger L38-L44 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Alpine DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
5%
Defensive
95%

Primary trigger L38-L44 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Red Bull Racing DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
35%
Defensive
65%

Primary trigger L35-L41 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Haas F1 Team DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
26%
Defensive
74%

Primary trigger L40-L45 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

McLaren DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
5%
Defensive
95%

Primary trigger L33-L39 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Racing Bulls DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
20%
Defensive
80%

Primary trigger L37-L42 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Williams DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
5%
Defensive
95%

Primary trigger L33-L39 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Aston Martin DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
5%
Defensive
95%

Primary trigger L34-L40 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Cadillac DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
5%
Defensive
95%

Primary trigger L33-L39 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Highlights

  • Most aggressive profile is Red Bull Racing (35%) around L35-L41; most defensive is Mercedes (95%).
  • No team is fully balanced in this projection; race mode is polarized between attack and cover approaches.
  • Primary trigger windows should be treated as action zones, with final call gated by tyre state and release traffic.

Race Mode Table

TeamModeAggressiveDefensivePrimary TriggerGuidance
Ferrari DEFENSIVE 18% 82% L27-L32 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Mercedes DEFENSIVE 5% 95% L37-L42 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Audi DEFENSIVE 5% 95% L38-L44 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Alpine DEFENSIVE 5% 95% L38-L44 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Red Bull Racing DEFENSIVE 35% 65% L35-L41 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Haas F1 Team DEFENSIVE 26% 74% L40-L45 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
McLaren DEFENSIVE 5% 95% L33-L39 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Racing Bulls DEFENSIVE 20% 80% L37-L42 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Williams DEFENSIVE 5% 95% L33-L39 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Aston Martin DEFENSIVE 5% 95% L34-L40 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Cadillac DEFENSIVE 5% 95% L33-L39 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Compound Pace Delta Visual

Bar length shows pace deficit to each team's fastest compound projection (s).

Soft Medium Hard
Ferrari
Soft
0.000 s
Medium
1.264 s
Hard
0.142 s
Mercedes
Soft
0.000 s
Medium
1.550 s
Hard
0.600 s
Audi
Soft
0.000 s
Medium
0.935 s
Hard
0.223 s
Alpine
Soft
0.000 s
Medium
2.985 s
Hard
1.562 s
Red Bull Racing
Soft
0.452 s
Medium
0.000 s
Hard
0.268 s
Haas F1 Team
Soft
0.000 s
Medium
0.816 s
Hard
0.653 s
McLaren
Soft
2.131 s
Medium
0.000 s
Hard
0.890 s
Racing Bulls
Soft
0.000 s
Medium
1.055 s
Hard
0.419 s
Williams
Soft
3.355 s
Medium
0.000 s
Hard
1.502 s
Aston Martin
Soft
0.889 s
Medium
0.000 s
Hard
0.644 s
Cadillac
Soft
1.613 s
Medium
0.000 s
Hard
0.631 s

Highlights

  • Team-best compound split is Medium: 5 team(s), Soft: 6 team(s).
  • Strongest absolute compound delta is Ferrari on Soft (+0.000s to own best baseline).
  • Top compound-efficient teams: Ferrari (Soft, +0.000s) | Mercedes (Soft, +0.000s) | Audi (Soft, +0.000s).

Team Stint Pace By Compound

TeamSoft PaceMedium PaceHard Pace
Ferrari1:13.8081:15.0721:13.950
Mercedes1:14.2211:15.7711:14.821
Audi1:15.9471:16.8821:16.170
Alpine1:14.9961:17.9801:16.558
Red Bull Racing1:15.9021:15.4501:15.718
Haas F1 Team1:15.2581:16.0731:15.910
McLaren1:17.8121:15.6811:16.572
Racing Bulls1:15.7171:16.7721:16.136
Williams1:20.3001:16.9451:18.448
Aston Martin1:17.4871:16.5971:17.242
Cadillac1:19.2141:17.6011:18.233

Team Degradation Outlook

TeamMean Deg (s/lap)Avg Expected Stops
Haas F1 Team0.031.38
Alpine0.0551.48
Audi0.0551.44
Red Bull Racing0.0551.38
Aston Martin0.071.49
Cadillac0.071.52
McLaren0.071.53
Mercedes0.071.55
Racing Bulls0.071.55
Williams0.071.53
Ferrari0.091.57