PaddockIQ | Strategy Lab

Race laps considered: 53

Data basis: current weekend sessions (primary signal) + previous same-GP editions (secondary context).

Hybrid strategy model active | ML train set: 2025 2025-R3, 2024-R4, 2023-R16, 2022-R18, 2019-R17 (50 team-rounds)

Pit Window + Stop Load Map

Pit windows and expected stop load by team.

L1 L9 L18 L26 L35 L44 L53

McLaren Expected Stops: 1.43

MEDIUM -> HARD

Stop 1 Window: L22-L28 Stop 2 Window: -

Ferrari Expected Stops: 1.39

MEDIUM -> HARD

Stop 1 Window: L23-L29 Stop 2 Window: -

Alpine Expected Stops: 1.76

MEDIUM -> HARD

HARD -> HARD

Stop 1 Window: L16-L20 Stop 2 Window: L37-L41

Racing Bulls Expected Stops: 1.39

HARD -> MEDIUM

Stop 1 Window: L26-L31 Stop 2 Window: -

Audi Expected Stops: 1.77

MEDIUM -> HARD

HARD -> HARD

Stop 1 Window: L16-L20 Stop 2 Window: L37-L41

Williams Expected Stops: 1.38

MEDIUM -> HARD

Stop 1 Window: L23-L29 Stop 2 Window: -

Red Bull Racing Expected Stops: 1.77

MEDIUM -> HARD

HARD -> HARD

Stop 1 Window: L16-L20 Stop 2 Window: L37-L41

Mercedes Expected Stops: 1.77

MEDIUM -> HARD

HARD -> HARD

Stop 1 Window: L16-L20 Stop 2 Window: L37-L41

Aston Martin Expected Stops: 1.53

MEDIUM -> HARD

HARD -> HARD

Stop 1 Window: L21-L27 Stop 2 Window: L36-L42

Haas F1 Team Expected Stops: 1.39

MEDIUM -> HARD

Stop 1 Window: L23-L29 Stop 2 Window: -

Cadillac Expected Stops: 1.39

MEDIUM -> HARD

Stop 1 Window: L23-L29 Stop 2 Window: -

Highlights

Earliest projected first stop is Alpine (L16-L20); latest is Racing Bulls (L26-L31).
Highest stop load is Audi at 1.77 stops, while Williams is lowest at 1.38.
Opening compound paths show early intent: McLaren: MEDIUM -> HARD | Ferrari: MEDIUM -> HARD | Alpine: MEDIUM -> HARD, then HARD -> HARD.

Team Strategy + Pit Stop Forecast

Team	Expected Stops	P(1)	P(2)	P(3+)	Strategy	Pit Window 1	Pit1 Tyre	Pit Window 2	Pit2 Tyre
McLaren	1.43	56.6%	43.4%	0.0%	MEDIUM -> HARD	L22-L28	MEDIUM -> HARD		-
Ferrari	1.39	61.1%	38.9%	0.0%	MEDIUM -> HARD	L23-L29	MEDIUM -> HARD		-
Alpine	1.76	23.8%	76.2%	0.0%	MEDIUM -> HARD -> HARD	L16-L20	MEDIUM -> HARD	L37-L41	HARD -> HARD
Racing Bulls	1.39	61.0%	39.0%	0.0%	HARD -> MEDIUM	L26-L31	HARD -> MEDIUM		-
Audi	1.77	22.7%	77.3%	0.0%	MEDIUM -> HARD -> HARD	L16-L20	MEDIUM -> HARD	L37-L41	HARD -> HARD
Williams	1.38	62.2%	37.8%	0.0%	MEDIUM -> HARD	L23-L29	MEDIUM -> HARD		-
Red Bull Racing	1.77	22.9%	77.1%	0.0%	MEDIUM -> HARD -> HARD	L16-L20	MEDIUM -> HARD	L37-L41	HARD -> HARD
Mercedes	1.77	22.8%	77.2%	0.0%	MEDIUM -> HARD -> HARD	L16-L20	MEDIUM -> HARD	L37-L41	HARD -> HARD
Aston Martin	1.53	47.4%	52.6%	0.0%	MEDIUM -> HARD -> HARD	L21-L27	MEDIUM -> HARD	L36-L42	HARD -> HARD
Haas F1 Team	1.39	61.0%	39.0%	0.0%	MEDIUM -> HARD	L23-L29	MEDIUM -> HARD		-
Cadillac	1.39	61.0%	39.0%	0.0%	MEDIUM -> HARD	L23-L29	MEDIUM -> HARD		-

Undercut vs Overcut Edge Map

Tactical edge view with trigger timing and viability scores.

McLaren OVERCUT

Undercut

0.294 s

Overcut

0.766 s

Trigger: L22-L28 (center L25) | Viability U/O: 28% / 72%

Ferrari OVERCUT

Undercut

0.294 s

Overcut

0.777 s

Trigger: L23-L29 (center L26) | Viability U/O: 27% / 73%

Alpine UNDERCUT

Undercut

0.646 s

Overcut

0.248 s

Trigger: L16-L20 (center L18) | Viability U/O: 72% / 28%

Racing Bulls OVERCUT

Undercut

0.340 s

Overcut

0.501 s

Trigger: L26-L31 (center L28) | Viability U/O: 40% / 60%

Audi OVERCUT

Undercut

0.290 s

Overcut

0.777 s

Trigger: L16-L20 (center L18) | Viability U/O: 27% / 73%

Williams OVERCUT

Undercut

0.301 s

Overcut

0.777 s

Trigger: L23-L29 (center L26) | Viability U/O: 28% / 72%

Red Bull Racing OVERCUT

Undercut

0.298 s

Overcut

0.777 s

Trigger: L16-L20 (center L18) | Viability U/O: 28% / 72%

Mercedes OVERCUT

Undercut

0.298 s

Overcut

0.777 s

Trigger: L16-L20 (center L18) | Viability U/O: 28% / 72%

Aston Martin OVERCUT

Undercut

0.301 s

Overcut

0.777 s

Trigger: L21-L27 (center L24) | Viability U/O: 28% / 72%

Haas F1 Team BALANCED

Undercut

0.381 s

Overcut

0.432 s

Trigger: L23-L29 (center L26) | Viability U/O: 47% / 53%

Cadillac UNDERCUT

Undercut

0.484 s

Overcut

0.337 s

Trigger: L23-L29 (center L26) | Viability U/O: 59% / 41%

Highlights

Strongest undercut edge is Alpine at 0.646s around L16-L20; strongest overcut edge is Ferrari at 0.777s.
1 team(s) project a BALANCED call, while others show clearer bias between undercut and overcut viability.
Highest call asymmetry: Ferrari U/O 27%/73% | Audi U/O 27%/73%.

Undercut / Overcut Strategy Table

Team	Preferred Call	Trigger Window	Trigger Lap	Undercut Gain (s)	Overcut Gain (s)	Viability U/O
McLaren	OVERCUT	L22-L28	L25	0.294	0.766	28% / 72%
Ferrari	OVERCUT	L23-L29	L26	0.294	0.777	27% / 73%
Alpine	UNDERCUT	L16-L20	L18	0.646	0.248	72% / 28%
Racing Bulls	OVERCUT	L26-L31	L28	0.340	0.501	40% / 60%
Audi	OVERCUT	L16-L20	L18	0.290	0.777	27% / 73%
Williams	OVERCUT	L23-L29	L26	0.301	0.777	28% / 72%
Red Bull Racing	OVERCUT	L16-L20	L18	0.298	0.777	28% / 72%
Mercedes	OVERCUT	L16-L20	L18	0.298	0.777	28% / 72%
Aston Martin	OVERCUT	L21-L27	L24	0.301	0.777	28% / 72%
Haas F1 Team	BALANCED	L23-L29	L26	0.381	0.432	47% / 53%
Cadillac	UNDERCUT	L23-L29	L26	0.484	0.337	59% / 41%

Stint Extension Decision Map

Extension recommendation for the opening stint around the first pit window.

McLaren MARGINAL

Viability

69%

Penalty

0.168 s

MEDIUM stint | Extend up to +3 laps | Window L22-L28

Ferrari EXTEND

Viability

72%

Penalty

0.198 s

MEDIUM stint | Extend up to +4 laps | Window L23-L29

Alpine MARGINAL

Viability

65%

Penalty

0.243 s

MEDIUM stint | Extend up to +3 laps | Window L16-L20

Racing Bulls EXTEND

Viability

72%

Penalty

0.198 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +4 laps | Window L26-L31

Audi MARGINAL

Viability

65%

Penalty

0.081 s

MEDIUM stint | Extend up to +1 laps | Window L16-L20

Williams EXTEND

Viability

73%

Penalty

0.189 s

MEDIUM stint | Extend up to +4 laps | Window L23-L29

Red Bull Racing MARGINAL

Viability

65%

Penalty

0.081 s

MEDIUM stint | Extend up to +1 laps | Window L16-L20

Mercedes MARGINAL

Viability

65%

Penalty

0.081 s

MEDIUM stint | Extend up to +1 laps | Window L16-L20

Aston Martin MARGINAL

Viability

68%

Penalty

0.189 s

MEDIUM stint | Extend up to +3 laps | Window L21-L27

Haas F1 Team EXTEND

Viability

74%

Penalty

0.248 s

MEDIUM stint | Extend up to +5 laps | Window L23-L29

Cadillac EXTEND

Viability

74%

Penalty

0.248 s

MEDIUM stint | Extend up to +5 laps | Window L23-L29

Highlights

Best extension case is Haas F1 Team (EXTEND) with 74% viability and +5 laps on MEDIUM.
Highest extension penalty appears at Haas F1 Team (0.248s), so stretching beyond L23-L29 is likely costly.
Extension call mix across teams is EXTEND: 5, MARGINAL: 6, showing how constrained the first-stop phase is.

Stint Extension Table

Team	Stint Tyre	Pit Window	Max Extend (laps)	Penalty (s)	Viability	Call
McLaren	MEDIUM	L22-L28	3	0.168	69%	MARGINAL
Ferrari	MEDIUM	L23-L29	4	0.198	72%	EXTEND
Alpine	MEDIUM	L16-L20	3	0.243	65%	MARGINAL
Racing Bulls	HARD	L26-L31	4	0.198	72%	EXTEND
Audi	MEDIUM	L16-L20	1	0.081	65%	MARGINAL
Williams	MEDIUM	L23-L29	4	0.189	73%	EXTEND
Red Bull Racing	MEDIUM	L16-L20	1	0.081	65%	MARGINAL
Mercedes	MEDIUM	L16-L20	1	0.081	65%	MARGINAL
Aston Martin	MEDIUM	L21-L27	3	0.189	68%	MARGINAL
Haas F1 Team	MEDIUM	L23-L29	5	0.248	74%	EXTEND
Cadillac	MEDIUM	L23-L29	5	0.248	74%	EXTEND

Defensive vs Aggressive Mode Map

Race-mode profile based on tactical edge, degradation and stop model.

McLaren DEFENSIVE

Aggressive

13%

Defensive

87%

Primary trigger L22-L28 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Ferrari DEFENSIVE

Aggressive

13%

Defensive

87%

Primary trigger L23-L29 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Alpine AGGRESSIVE

Aggressive

95%

Defensive

5%

Primary trigger L16-L20 | Push undercut threat and attack around trigger lap.

Racing Bulls BALANCED

Aggressive

45%

Defensive

55%

Primary trigger L26-L31 | Flexible call: react to traffic and tyre state.

Audi DEFENSIVE

Aggressive

6%

Defensive

94%

Primary trigger L16-L20 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Williams DEFENSIVE

Aggressive

14%

Defensive

86%

Primary trigger L23-L29 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Red Bull Racing DEFENSIVE

Aggressive

7%

Defensive

93%

Primary trigger L16-L20 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Mercedes DEFENSIVE

Aggressive

7%

Defensive

93%

Primary trigger L16-L20 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Aston Martin DEFENSIVE

Aggressive

11%

Defensive

89%

Primary trigger L21-L27 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Haas F1 Team BALANCED

Aggressive

56%

Defensive

44%

Primary trigger L23-L29 | Flexible call: react to traffic and tyre state.

Cadillac AGGRESSIVE

Aggressive

77%

Defensive

23%

Primary trigger L23-L29 | Push undercut threat and attack around trigger lap.

Highlights

Most aggressive profile is Alpine (95%) around L16-L20; most defensive is Audi (94%).
Balanced-mode teams are Racing Bulls, Haas F1 Team, indicating higher adaptability to SC/VSC or traffic disruptions.
Primary trigger windows should be treated as action zones, with final call gated by tyre state and release traffic.

Race Mode Table

Team	Mode	Aggressive	Defensive	Primary Trigger	Guidance
McLaren	DEFENSIVE	13%	87%	L22-L28	Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Ferrari	DEFENSIVE	13%	87%	L23-L29	Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Alpine	AGGRESSIVE	95%	5%	L16-L20	Push undercut threat and attack around trigger lap.
Racing Bulls	BALANCED	45%	55%	L26-L31	Flexible call: react to traffic and tyre state.
Audi	DEFENSIVE	6%	94%	L16-L20	Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Williams	DEFENSIVE	14%	86%	L23-L29	Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Red Bull Racing	DEFENSIVE	7%	93%	L16-L20	Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Mercedes	DEFENSIVE	7%	93%	L16-L20	Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Aston Martin	DEFENSIVE	11%	89%	L21-L27	Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Haas F1 Team	BALANCED	56%	44%	L23-L29	Flexible call: react to traffic and tyre state.
Cadillac	AGGRESSIVE	77%	23%	L23-L29	Push undercut threat and attack around trigger lap.

Compound Pace Delta Visual

Bar length shows pace deficit to each team's fastest compound projection (s).

Soft Medium Hard

McLaren

Soft

0.000 s

Medium

4.569 s

Hard

5.255 s

Ferrari

Soft

0.000 s

Medium

4.055 s

Hard

5.109 s

Alpine

Soft

0.000 s

Medium

4.491 s

Hard

4.404 s

Racing Bulls

Soft

0.000 s

Medium

4.638 s

Hard

4.517 s

Audi

Soft

3.684 s

Medium

0.000 s

Hard

5.104 s

Williams

Soft

0.000 s

Medium

3.610 s

Hard

4.495 s

Red Bull Racing

Soft

0.000 s

Medium

2.469 s

Hard

4.690 s

Mercedes

Soft

0.000 s

Medium

3.432 s

Hard

4.517 s

Aston Martin

Soft

3.740 s

Medium

0.000 s

Hard

1.054 s

Haas F1 Team

Soft

0.000 s

Medium

4.129 s

Hard

4.517 s

Cadillac

Soft

0.000 s

Medium

6.210 s

Hard

6.441 s

Highlights

Team-best compound split is Medium: 2 team(s), Soft: 9 team(s).
Strongest absolute compound delta is McLaren on Soft (+0.000s to own best baseline).
Top compound-efficient teams: McLaren (Soft, +0.000s) | Ferrari (Soft, +0.000s) | Alpine (Soft, +0.000s).

Team Stint Pace By Compound

Team	Soft Pace	Medium Pace	Hard Pace
McLaren	1:31.331	1:35.899	1:36.586
Ferrari	1:31.476	1:35.531	1:36.586
Alpine	1:31.959	1:36.450	1:36.364
Racing Bulls	1:32.069	1:36.707	1:36.586
Audi	1:35.901	1:32.217	1:37.321
Williams	1:32.867	1:36.478	1:37.362
Red Bull Racing	1:32.069	1:34.538	1:36.759
Mercedes	1:32.069	1:35.501	1:36.586
Aston Martin	1:39.273	1:35.532	1:36.586
Haas F1 Team	1:32.069	1:36.198	1:36.586
Cadillac	1:32.069	1:38.279	1:38.510

Team Degradation Outlook

Team	Mean Deg (s/lap)	Avg Expected Stops
Williams	0.052	1.38
Cadillac	0.055	1.39
Ferrari	0.055	1.39
Haas F1 Team	0.055	1.39
Racing Bulls	0.055	1.39
McLaren	0.062	1.43
Aston Martin	0.07	1.53
Alpine	0.09	1.76
Audi	0.09	1.77
Mercedes	0.09	1.77
Red Bull Racing	0.09	1.77