PaddockIQ

Weekend Analysis

2026 Round 3 | Japanese Grand Prix

FP1

Drivers: 22Laps: 428

Pace Distribution

FP1 Pace Distribution

Highlights

  • FP1 includes 428 cleaned timed laps, with RUS (Mercedes) setting the top reference at 1:32.041.
  • The order fans from +1.031s at P5 to +1.356s at P10; this shape is typical when teams split between short-run prep and long-run programs.
  • Practice interpretation: wide boxes are often run-plan noise (fuel, traffic, prep laps), while narrow boxes with decent pace usually indicate a stable baseline rather than peak mode.

Median Pace Delta to Fastest

FP1 Median Pace Delta to Fastest

Highlights

  • Median pace baseline is RUS (Mercedes) at 1:32.041, with immediate challengers at +0.397s and +0.652s.
  • Delta growth to +1.031s (P5) and +1.356s (P10) suggests at least two pace tiers, but practice tiers can compress once fuel loads converge.
  • Potential hidden-pace context: teams may suppress headline pace via higher fuel or conservative power modes, so prioritize repeatability and stint behavior over absolute median delta alone.

Sector Delta Heatmap

FP1 Sector Delta Heatmap

Highlights

  • FP1 sector map is anchored to RUS (Mercedes) at 1:32.041, with the first chase gap at +0.397s.
  • The spread expands from +0.652s at P3 to +1.356s at P10, which usually indicates multiple run plans (fuel/compound targets) rather than one pure quali simulation.
  • Large single-sector losses in practice can come from conservative deployment and heavier fuel, so treat red cells as directionally useful, not absolute qualifying truth.

Pace vs Consistency

FP1 Pace vs Consistency

Highlights

  • RUS (Mercedes) is the pace anchor at 1:32.041 over 21 laps, while PIA and NOR sit at +0.397s and +0.652s.
  • Drivers low on the chart with larger bubbles are showing repeatable race-run behavior; high vertical spread often points to mixed fuel targets, traffic, or setup experimentation.
  • Potential sandbagging signal: if a team shows strong consistency and lap-count depth without headline top pace, they may be running conservative engine modes or heavier fuel.

Long-Run Pace

FP1 Long-Run Pace

Highlights

  • Long-run reference is NOR (McLaren) at 93.965s, with RUS at +1.595s and ANT at +2.413s.
  • Each bar uses one representative race-run stint per driver (minimum 3 laps, excluding opening stint laps).
  • Within the plotted long-run group, spread is +3.575s to P5 and +3.575s from fastest to slowest.

Compound Usage Mix

FP1 Compound Usage Mix

Highlights

  • Highest soft-running share: ANT (72.7%). Highest medium share: VER (86.7%).
  • Highest hard-running share: LIN (80.0%), indicating the strongest bias to longer-stint baseline work in this session.
  • Most balanced S/M/H split is HAM (50.0% / 0.0% / 50.0%); compound bias can reflect deliberate program masking as much as pure pace.

Team Mean vs Top Speed

FP1 Team Mean vs Top Speed

Highlights

  • FP1 speed profile links team-level mean speed to terminal speed, with the pace reference set by RUS (Mercedes).
  • High top-speed but weaker mean-speed points typically indicate lower drag or stronger deployment, while high mean-speed with modest top-speed usually reflects downforce-biased setup.
  • Practice caveat: engine mode masking and fuel-load variation can hide true one-lap pace, so use this chart as aero/efficiency direction rather than final ranking.
PosDriverTeamTop-5 Avg PaceLaps
1RUSMercedes1:32.04121
2PIAMcLaren1:32.43820
3NORMcLaren1:32.69417
4ANTMercedes1:32.72621
5LAWRacing Bulls1:33.07223
6VERRed Bull Racing1:33.18823
7HAMFerrari1:33.20416
8LECFerrari1:33.32721
9HADRed Bull Racing1:33.37423
10LINRacing Bulls1:33.39725

FP2

Drivers: 21Laps: 429

Pace Distribution

FP2 Pace Distribution

Highlights

  • FP2 includes 429 cleaned timed laps, with PIA (McLaren) setting the top reference at 1:30.788.
  • The order fans from +0.737s at P5 to +1.846s at P10; this shape is typical when teams split between short-run prep and long-run programs.
  • Practice interpretation: wide boxes are often run-plan noise (fuel, traffic, prep laps), while narrow boxes with decent pace usually indicate a stable baseline rather than peak mode.

Median Pace Delta to Fastest

FP2 Median Pace Delta to Fastest

Highlights

  • Median pace baseline is PIA (McLaren) at 1:30.788, with immediate challengers at +0.173s and +0.230s.
  • Delta growth to +0.737s (P5) and +1.846s (P10) suggests at least two pace tiers, but practice tiers can compress once fuel loads converge.
  • Potential hidden-pace context: teams may suppress headline pace via higher fuel or conservative power modes, so prioritize repeatability and stint behavior over absolute median delta alone.

Sector Delta Heatmap

FP2 Sector Delta Heatmap

Highlights

  • FP2 sector map is anchored to PIA (McLaren) at 1:30.788, with the first chase gap at +0.173s.
  • The spread expands from +0.230s at P3 to +1.846s at P10, which usually indicates multiple run plans (fuel/compound targets) rather than one pure quali simulation.
  • Large single-sector losses in practice can come from conservative deployment and heavier fuel, so treat red cells as directionally useful, not absolute qualifying truth.

Pace vs Consistency

FP2 Pace vs Consistency

Highlights

  • PIA (McLaren) is the pace anchor at 1:30.788 over 24 laps, while RUS and ANT sit at +0.173s and +0.230s.
  • Drivers low on the chart with larger bubbles are showing repeatable race-run behavior; high vertical spread often points to mixed fuel targets, traffic, or setup experimentation.
  • Potential sandbagging signal: if a team shows strong consistency and lap-count depth without headline top pace, they may be running conservative engine modes or heavier fuel.

Long-Run Pace

FP2 Long-Run Pace

Highlights

  • Long-run reference is ANT (Mercedes) at 94.557s, with RUS at +0.658s and LEC at +0.724s.
  • Each bar uses one representative race-run stint per driver (minimum 3 laps, excluding opening stint laps).
  • Within the plotted long-run group, spread is +1.539s to P5 and +2.448s from fastest to slowest.

Compound Usage Mix

FP2 Compound Usage Mix

Highlights

  • Highest soft-running share: HUL (35.7%). Highest medium share: OCO (87.5%).
  • Highest hard-running share: GAS (86.7%), indicating the strongest bias to longer-stint baseline work in this session.
  • Most balanced S/M/H split is HUL (35.7% / 0.0% / 64.3%); compound bias can reflect deliberate program masking as much as pure pace.

Team Mean vs Top Speed

FP2 Team Mean vs Top Speed

Highlights

  • FP2 speed profile links team-level mean speed to terminal speed, with the pace reference set by PIA (McLaren).
  • High top-speed but weaker mean-speed points typically indicate lower drag or stronger deployment, while high mean-speed with modest top-speed usually reflects downforce-biased setup.
  • Practice caveat: engine mode masking and fuel-load variation can hide true one-lap pace, so use this chart as aero/efficiency direction rather than final ranking.
PosDriverTeamTop-5 Avg PaceLaps
1PIAMcLaren1:30.78824
2RUSMercedes1:30.96122
3ANTMercedes1:31.01819
4HAMFerrari1:31.38419
5LECFerrari1:31.52523
6HULAudi1:32.12322
7HADRed Bull Racing1:32.20223
8LAWRacing Bulls1:32.23324
9GASAlpine1:32.50024
10OCOHaas F1 Team1:32.63424

FP3

Drivers: 22Laps: 343

Pace Distribution

FP3 Pace Distribution

Highlights

  • FP3 includes 343 cleaned timed laps, with ANT (Mercedes) setting the top reference at 1:29.932.
  • The order fans from +0.821s at P5 to +1.588s at P10; this shape is typical when teams split between short-run prep and long-run programs.
  • Practice interpretation: wide boxes are often run-plan noise (fuel, traffic, prep laps), while narrow boxes with decent pace usually indicate a stable baseline rather than peak mode.

Median Pace Delta to Fastest

FP3 Median Pace Delta to Fastest

Highlights

  • Median pace baseline is ANT (Mercedes) at 1:29.932, with immediate challengers at +0.102s and +0.584s.
  • Delta growth to +0.821s (P5) and +1.588s (P10) suggests at least two pace tiers, but practice tiers can compress once fuel loads converge.
  • Potential hidden-pace context: teams may suppress headline pace via higher fuel or conservative power modes, so prioritize repeatability and stint behavior over absolute median delta alone.

Sector Delta Heatmap

FP3 Sector Delta Heatmap

Highlights

  • FP3 sector map is anchored to ANT (Mercedes) at 1:29.932, with the first chase gap at +0.102s.
  • The spread expands from +0.584s at P3 to +1.588s at P10, which usually indicates multiple run plans (fuel/compound targets) rather than one pure quali simulation.
  • Large single-sector losses in practice can come from conservative deployment and heavier fuel, so treat red cells as directionally useful, not absolute qualifying truth.

Pace vs Consistency

FP3 Pace vs Consistency

Highlights

  • ANT (Mercedes) is the pace anchor at 1:29.932 over 12 laps, while RUS and LEC sit at +0.102s and +0.584s.
  • Drivers low on the chart with larger bubbles are showing repeatable race-run behavior; high vertical spread often points to mixed fuel targets, traffic, or setup experimentation.
  • Potential sandbagging signal: if a team shows strong consistency and lap-count depth without headline top pace, they may be running conservative engine modes or heavier fuel.

Compound Usage Mix

FP3 Compound Usage Mix

Highlights

  • Highest soft-running share: ANT (100.0%). Highest medium share: LAW (83.3%).
  • No hard-compound running is present for the selected drivers in this session; programs are concentrated on soft/medium work.
  • Most balanced S/M/H split is GAS (50.0% / 50.0% / 0.0%); compound bias can reflect deliberate program masking as much as pure pace.

Team Mean vs Top Speed

FP3 Team Mean vs Top Speed

Highlights

  • FP3 speed profile links team-level mean speed to terminal speed, with the pace reference set by ANT (Mercedes).
  • High top-speed but weaker mean-speed points typically indicate lower drag or stronger deployment, while high mean-speed with modest top-speed usually reflects downforce-biased setup.
  • Practice caveat: engine mode masking and fuel-load variation can hide true one-lap pace, so use this chart as aero/efficiency direction rather than final ranking.
PosDriverTeamTop-5 Avg PaceLaps
1ANTMercedes1:29.93212
2RUSMercedes1:30.03413
3LECFerrari1:30.51616
4PIAMcLaren1:30.54215
5HAMFerrari1:30.75217
6HULAudi1:31.10217
7VERRed Bull Racing1:31.23019
8BORAudi1:31.24818
9LAWRacing Bulls1:31.49319
10GASAlpine1:31.51916

Q1

Drivers: 22Laps: 120

Sector Delta Comparison

Q1 Sector Delta Comparison

Highlights

  • S1/S2/S3 benchmarks are LEC (Ferrari) 32.269s, PIA (McLaren) 39.788s, and HUL (Audi) 17.564s.
  • 3 different driver(s) hold sector-best times, so lap ranking is shaped by sector balance rather than a single dominant split.
  • With a 0.052s table gap from P1 to P2, even one mid-sector correction can materially change grid order.

Best Lap Delta to Fastest

Q1 Best Lap Delta to Fastest

Highlights

  • Best-lap benchmark is LEC (Ferrari) at 1:29.915; closest challenger is RUS at +0.052s.
  • This reflects peak single-lap execution potential, so a low delta does not always imply equivalent long-run pace.
  • With P1-to-P3 only +0.120s, marginal sector improvements can quickly reshuffle this split.

Sector Delta Heatmap

Q1 Sector Delta Heatmap

Highlights

  • The heatmap is anchored to S1/S2/S3 references of 32.269s, 39.788s, and 17.564s respectively.
  • Because 3 driver(s) share sector benchmarks, the chart highlights where contenders trade strengths across the lap.
  • S2 has the widest sector spread at +0.539s from best to slowest, making it the key separator in this session.

Improvement Analysis

Q1 Improvement Analysis

Highlights

  • LEC (Ferrari) sets the reference at 1:29.915, while this chart isolates who improved most run-to-run in Q1.
  • Large positive improvement with low lap count often signals one optimized push-lap, while repeated medium gains suggest sustainable pace unlocking.
  • The current top-table separation is 0.052s, so incremental gains in final attempts can still reorder nearby positions.

Sector Execution Gap

Q1 Sector Execution Gap

Highlights

  • LEC (Ferrari) leads the split at 1:29.915, and this stack shows where rivals leave lap potential unused versus their own best sectors.
  • Sector best references are S1 LEC (32.269s), S2 PIA (39.788s), and S3 HUL (17.564s).
  • The tallest color block in each stack marks the biggest execution leak and should be the first setup/driver target.

Fastest Two Lap Delta

Q1 Fastest Two Lap Delta

Highlights

  • Q1 reference lap is LEC (Ferrari) at 1:29.915, with RUS (Mercedes) next at +0.052s.
  • Long same-direction delta segments indicate where one lap held a sustained gain rather than isolated corner-only spikes.
  • P1-to-P3 separation is +0.120s, so even small mid-lap gains can materially change the front order in this split.
PosDriverTeamS1 (s)S2 (s)S3 (s)Best Lap (s)
1 LEC Ferrari 0:32.269 0:39.857 0:17.668 1:29.915
2 RUS Mercedes 0:32.443 0:39.791 0:17.733 1:29.967
3 ANT Mercedes 0:32.388 0:39.930 0:17.717 1:30.035
4 PIA McLaren 0:32.546 0:39.788 0:17.803 1:30.200
5 HAM Ferrari 0:32.313 0:40.206 0:17.691 1:30.309
6 HUL Audi 0:32.486 0:40.231 0:17.564 1:30.358
7 BOR Audi 0:32.440 0:40.260 0:17.586 1:30.359
8 NOR McLaren 0:32.556 0:40.033 0:17.728 1:30.401
9 VER Red Bull Racing 0:32.588 0:40.319 0:17.565 1:30.519
10 GAS Alpine 0:32.528 0:40.327 0:17.709 1:30.584

Q2

Drivers: 16Laps: 69

Sector Delta Comparison

Q2 Sector Delta Comparison

Highlights

  • S1/S2/S3 benchmarks are LEC (Ferrari) 31.778s, ANT (Mercedes) 39.398s, and ANT (Mercedes) 17.472s.
  • 2 different driver(s) hold sector-best times, so lap ranking is shaped by sector balance rather than a single dominant split.
  • With a 0.255s table gap from P1 to P2, even one mid-sector correction can materially change grid order.

Best Lap Delta to Fastest

Q2 Best Lap Delta to Fastest

Highlights

  • Best-lap benchmark is ANT (Mercedes) at 1:29.048; closest challenger is LEC at +0.255s.
  • This reflects peak single-lap execution potential, so a low delta does not always imply equivalent long-run pace.
  • With P1-to-P3 only +0.403s, marginal sector improvements can quickly reshuffle this split.

Sector Delta Heatmap

Q2 Sector Delta Heatmap

Highlights

  • The heatmap is anchored to S1/S2/S3 references of 31.778s, 39.398s, and 17.472s respectively.
  • Because 2 driver(s) share sector benchmarks, the chart highlights where contenders trade strengths across the lap.
  • S1 has the widest sector spread at +0.787s from best to slowest, making it the key separator in this session.

Improvement Analysis

Q2 Improvement Analysis

Highlights

  • ANT (Mercedes) sets the reference at 1:29.048, while this chart isolates who improved most run-to-run in Q2.
  • Large positive improvement with low lap count often signals one optimized push-lap, while repeated medium gains suggest sustainable pace unlocking.
  • The current top-table separation is 0.255s, so incremental gains in final attempts can still reorder nearby positions.

Sector Execution Gap

Q2 Sector Execution Gap

Highlights

  • ANT (Mercedes) leads the split at 1:29.048, and this stack shows where rivals leave lap potential unused versus their own best sectors.
  • Sector best references are S1 LEC (31.778s), S2 ANT (39.398s), and S3 ANT (17.472s).
  • The tallest color block in each stack marks the biggest execution leak and should be the first setup/driver target.

Fastest Two Lap Delta

Q2 Fastest Two Lap Delta

Highlights

  • Q2 reference lap is ANT (Mercedes) at 1:29.048, with LEC (Ferrari) next at +0.255s.
  • Long same-direction delta segments indicate where one lap held a sustained gain rather than isolated corner-only spikes.
  • P1-to-P3 separation is +0.403s, so even small mid-lap gains can materially change the front order in this split.
PosDriverTeamS1 (s)S2 (s)S3 (s)Best Lap (s)
1 ANT Mercedes 0:32.178 0:39.398 0:17.472 1:29.048
2 LEC Ferrari 0:31.778 0:39.855 0:17.670 1:29.303
3 PIA McLaren 0:32.131 0:39.743 0:17.577 1:29.451
4 HAM Ferrari 0:32.031 0:39.933 0:17.625 1:29.589
5 RUS Mercedes 0:32.165 0:39.715 0:17.707 1:29.686
6 NOR McLaren 0:32.208 0:39.892 0:17.695 1:29.795
7 GAS Alpine 0:32.224 0:40.114 0:17.531 1:29.874
8 BOR Audi 0:32.288 0:40.149 0:17.492 1:29.990
9 HAD Red Bull Racing 0:32.336 0:40.094 0:17.608 1:30.104
10 LIN Racing Bulls 0:32.565 0:40.043 0:17.501 1:30.109

Q3

Drivers: 10Laps: 38

Sector Delta Comparison

Q3 Sector Delta Comparison

Highlights

  • S1/S2/S3 benchmarks are LEC (Ferrari) 31.655s, ANT (Mercedes) 39.439s, and ANT (Mercedes) 17.464s.
  • 2 different driver(s) hold sector-best times, so lap ranking is shaped by sector balance rather than a single dominant split.
  • With a 0.298s table gap from P1 to P2, even one mid-sector correction can materially change grid order.

Best Lap Delta to Fastest

Q3 Best Lap Delta to Fastest

Highlights

  • Best-lap benchmark is ANT (Mercedes) at 1:28.778; closest challenger is RUS at +0.298s.
  • This reflects peak single-lap execution potential, so a low delta does not always imply equivalent long-run pace.
  • With P1-to-P3 only +0.354s, marginal sector improvements can quickly reshuffle this split.

Sector Delta Heatmap

Q3 Sector Delta Heatmap

Highlights

  • The heatmap is anchored to S1/S2/S3 references of 31.655s, 39.439s, and 17.464s respectively.
  • Because 2 driver(s) share sector benchmarks, the chart highlights where contenders trade strengths across the lap.
  • S1 has the widest sector spread at +0.893s from best to slowest, making it the key separator in this session.

Improvement Analysis

Q3 Improvement Analysis

Highlights

  • ANT (Mercedes) sets the reference at 1:28.778, while this chart isolates who improved most run-to-run in Q3.
  • Large positive improvement with low lap count often signals one optimized push-lap, while repeated medium gains suggest sustainable pace unlocking.
  • The current top-table separation is 0.298s, so incremental gains in final attempts can still reorder nearby positions.

Sector Execution Gap

Q3 Sector Execution Gap

Highlights

  • ANT (Mercedes) leads the split at 1:28.778, and this stack shows where rivals leave lap potential unused versus their own best sectors.
  • Sector best references are S1 LEC (31.655s), S2 ANT (39.439s), and S3 ANT (17.464s).
  • The tallest color block in each stack marks the biggest execution leak and should be the first setup/driver target.

Fastest Two Lap Delta

Q3 Fastest Two Lap Delta

Highlights

  • Q3 reference lap is ANT (Mercedes) at 1:28.778, with RUS (Mercedes) next at +0.298s.
  • Long same-direction delta segments indicate where one lap held a sustained gain rather than isolated corner-only spikes.
  • P1-to-P3 separation is +0.354s, so even small mid-lap gains can materially change the front order in this split.
PosDriverTeamS1 (s)S2 (s)S3 (s)Best Lap (s)
1 ANT Mercedes 0:31.827 0:39.439 0:17.464 1:28.778
2 RUS Mercedes 0:31.782 0:39.607 0:17.616 1:29.076
3 PIA McLaren 0:31.954 0:39.557 0:17.587 1:29.132
4 LEC Ferrari 0:31.655 0:39.883 0:17.753 1:29.405
5 NOR McLaren 0:32.049 0:39.716 0:17.627 1:29.409
6 HAM Ferrari 0:31.762 0:39.934 0:17.637 1:29.567
7 GAS Alpine 0:32.143 0:40.029 0:17.519 1:29.691
8 HAD Red Bull Racing 0:32.164 0:40.137 0:17.677 1:29.978
9 BOR Audi 0:32.292 0:40.213 0:17.664 1:30.274
10 LIN Racing Bulls 0:32.548 0:40.155 0:17.616 1:30.319

Race

Drivers: 22Laps: 1086

Position Trace

Race Position Trace

Highlights

  • Final order reference is ANT, PIA, LEC, and the trace shows how each driver reached that finish rather than only the classified result.
  • Large slope changes typically align with pit phases, traffic release, or neutralization effects.
  • Compare the winner ANT versus nearest finishers (PIA, LEC) to separate strategy timing from raw pace.

Lap Time Trace

Race Lap Time Trace

Highlights

  • ANT (Mercedes) leads at 1:33.798, with PIA at +0.364s, and this trace shows how that gap evolved lap-by-lap.
  • Step-like improvements often mark post-stop clean-air phases, while spikes usually point to traffic or tyre drop-off.
  • P1-to-P3 pace spread is +0.421s, which indicates how much variation contenders could tolerate during pit cycles.

Stint Timeline (Compound Coded)

Race Stint Timeline (Compound Coded)

Highlights

  • Observed stop profile is 2 stints for all listed runners, and the front reference is ANT with a median pace of 1:33.798.
  • Longer opening or middle segments usually indicate teams protecting track position and stretching tyre life before committing to stop windows.
  • Shorter repeated segments usually reflect aggressive offset attempts or response calls to direct rivals in the same position battle.

Tyre Degradation

Race Tyre Degradation

Highlights

  • ANT (Mercedes) is the pace reference at 1:33.798, and the degradation trend tests whether that edge survives tyre-age accumulation.
  • Flatter trend lines indicate stronger stint management, while steeper slopes usually force earlier stops or larger late-stint deficits.
  • Use slope differences between ANT, PIA, and LEC to estimate who can extend windows without a major pace penalty.

Degradation-Corrected Pace

Race Degradation-Corrected Pace

Highlights

  • ANT (Mercedes) is the corrected baseline at 1:33.798, with PIA at +0.364s after tyre-age normalization.
  • Drivers whose corrected distributions stay tight and low typically had strong stint control independent of compound age profile.
  • The corrected benchmark gap of 0.364s to P2 indicates whether raw result order is supported by sustainable pace.
PosDriverTeamMedian Pace (s)Fastest Lap (s)Stints
1 ANT Mercedes 1:33.798 1:32.432 2
2 PIA McLaren 1:34.162 1:32.996 2
3 LEC Ferrari 1:34.220 1:32.634 2
4 RUS Mercedes 1:34.617 1:32.549 2
5 NOR McLaren 1:34.513 1:33.208 2
6 HAM Ferrari 1:34.927 1:32.777 2
7 GAS Alpine 1:35.480 1:33.691 2
8 VER Red Bull Racing 1:35.561 1:33.552 2
9 LAW Racing Bulls 1:36.278 1:34.230 2
10 OCO Haas F1 Team 1:35.889 1:34.256 2