PaddockIQ

Strategy Lab

2026 Round 7 | Barcelona Grand Prix

Race laps considered: 66

Data basis: current weekend sessions (primary signal) + previous same-GP editions (secondary context).

Hybrid strategy model active | ML train set: 2025 R1-R2 (20 team-rounds)

Pit Window + Stop Load Map

Pit windows and expected stop load by team.

L1 L11 L22 L33 L44 L55 L66
McLaren Expected Stops: 1.64
MEDIUM -> HARD
HARD -> HARD
Stop 1 Window: L27-L33 Stop 2 Window: L45-L51
Mercedes Expected Stops: 1.59
MEDIUM -> HARD
HARD -> HARD
Stop 1 Window: L27-L33 Stop 2 Window: L45-L51
Aston Martin Expected Stops: 1.59
MEDIUM -> HARD
HARD -> HARD
Stop 1 Window: L27-L33 Stop 2 Window: L45-L51
Red Bull Racing Expected Stops: 1.91
HARD -> MEDIUM
MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L22-L26 Stop 2 Window: L42-L47
Audi Expected Stops: 1.59
MEDIUM -> HARD
HARD -> HARD
Stop 1 Window: L27-L33 Stop 2 Window: L45-L51
Ferrari Expected Stops: 1.59
MEDIUM -> HARD
HARD -> HARD
Stop 1 Window: L27-L33 Stop 2 Window: L45-L51
Alpine Expected Stops: 1.49
HARD -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L32-L38 Stop 2 Window: -
Haas F1 Team Expected Stops: 1.59
MEDIUM -> HARD
HARD -> HARD
Stop 1 Window: L27-L33 Stop 2 Window: L45-L51
Cadillac Expected Stops: 1.96
HARD -> MEDIUM
MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L22-L26 Stop 2 Window: L42-L47
Racing Bulls Expected Stops: 1.59
MEDIUM -> HARD
HARD -> HARD
Stop 1 Window: L27-L33 Stop 2 Window: L45-L51
Williams Expected Stops: 1.6
MEDIUM -> HARD
HARD -> HARD
Stop 1 Window: L27-L33 Stop 2 Window: L45-L51

Highlights

  • Earliest projected first stop is Red Bull Racing (L22-L26); latest is Alpine (L32-L38).
  • Highest stop load is Cadillac at 1.96 stops, while Alpine is lowest at 1.49.
  • Opening compound paths show early intent: McLaren: MEDIUM -> HARD, then HARD -> HARD | Mercedes: MEDIUM -> HARD, then HARD -> HARD | Aston Martin: MEDIUM -> HARD, then HARD -> HARD.

Team Strategy + Pit Stop Forecast

TeamExpected StopsP(1)P(2)P(3+)StrategyPit Window 1Pit1 TyrePit Window 2Pit2 Tyre
McLaren 1.64 35.8% 64.2% 0.0% MEDIUM -> HARD -> HARD L27-L33 MEDIUM -> HARD L45-L51 HARD -> HARD
Mercedes 1.59 40.6% 59.4% 0.0% MEDIUM -> HARD -> HARD L27-L33 MEDIUM -> HARD L45-L51 HARD -> HARD
Aston Martin 1.59 40.6% 59.4% 0.0% MEDIUM -> HARD -> HARD L27-L33 MEDIUM -> HARD L45-L51 HARD -> HARD
Red Bull Racing 1.91 9.1% 90.9% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM -> MEDIUM L22-L26 HARD -> MEDIUM L42-L47 MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Audi 1.59 40.6% 59.4% 0.0% MEDIUM -> HARD -> HARD L27-L33 MEDIUM -> HARD L45-L51 HARD -> HARD
Ferrari 1.59 40.6% 59.4% 0.0% MEDIUM -> HARD -> HARD L27-L33 MEDIUM -> HARD L45-L51 HARD -> HARD
Alpine 1.49 51.3% 48.7% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM L32-L38 HARD -> MEDIUM -
Haas F1 Team 1.59 40.6% 59.4% 0.0% MEDIUM -> HARD -> HARD L27-L33 MEDIUM -> HARD L45-L51 HARD -> HARD
Cadillac 1.96 3.9% 96.1% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM -> MEDIUM L22-L26 HARD -> MEDIUM L42-L47 MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Racing Bulls 1.59 40.6% 59.4% 0.0% MEDIUM -> HARD -> HARD L27-L33 MEDIUM -> HARD L45-L51 HARD -> HARD
Williams 1.6 39.6% 60.4% 0.0% MEDIUM -> HARD -> HARD L27-L33 MEDIUM -> HARD L45-L51 HARD -> HARD

Undercut vs Overcut Edge Map

Tactical edge view with trigger timing and viability scores.

McLaren OVERCUT
Undercut
0.253 s
Overcut
0.801 s

Trigger: L27-L33 (center L30) | Viability U/O: 24% / 76%

Mercedes OVERCUT
Undercut
0.253 s
Overcut
0.801 s

Trigger: L27-L33 (center L30) | Viability U/O: 24% / 76%

Aston Martin OVERCUT
Undercut
0.253 s
Overcut
0.801 s

Trigger: L27-L33 (center L30) | Viability U/O: 24% / 76%

Red Bull Racing UNDERCUT
Undercut
0.633 s
Overcut
0.298 s

Trigger: L22-L26 (center L24) | Viability U/O: 68% / 32%

Audi OVERCUT
Undercut
0.253 s
Overcut
0.625 s

Trigger: L27-L33 (center L30) | Viability U/O: 29% / 71%

Ferrari OVERCUT
Undercut
0.253 s
Overcut
0.582 s

Trigger: L27-L33 (center L30) | Viability U/O: 30% / 70%

Alpine OVERCUT
Undercut
0.334 s
Overcut
0.475 s

Trigger: L32-L38 (center L35) | Viability U/O: 41% / 59%

Haas F1 Team OVERCUT
Undercut
0.253 s
Overcut
0.801 s

Trigger: L27-L33 (center L30) | Viability U/O: 24% / 76%

Cadillac OVERCUT
Undercut
0.260 s
Overcut
0.801 s

Trigger: L22-L26 (center L24) | Viability U/O: 25% / 75%

Racing Bulls OVERCUT
Undercut
0.253 s
Overcut
0.604 s

Trigger: L27-L33 (center L30) | Viability U/O: 30% / 70%

Williams OVERCUT
Undercut
0.253 s
Overcut
0.604 s

Trigger: L27-L33 (center L30) | Viability U/O: 30% / 70%

Highlights

  • Strongest undercut edge is Red Bull Racing at 0.633s around L22-L26; strongest overcut edge is McLaren at 0.801s.
  • 0 team(s) project a BALANCED call, while others show clearer bias between undercut and overcut viability.
  • Highest call asymmetry: McLaren U/O 24%/76% | Mercedes U/O 24%/76%.

Undercut / Overcut Strategy Table

TeamPreferred CallTrigger WindowTrigger LapUndercut Gain (s)Overcut Gain (s)Viability U/O
McLaren OVERCUT L27-L33 L30 0.253 0.801 24% / 76%
Mercedes OVERCUT L27-L33 L30 0.253 0.801 24% / 76%
Aston Martin OVERCUT L27-L33 L30 0.253 0.801 24% / 76%
Red Bull Racing UNDERCUT L22-L26 L24 0.633 0.298 68% / 32%
Audi OVERCUT L27-L33 L30 0.253 0.625 29% / 71%
Ferrari OVERCUT L27-L33 L30 0.253 0.582 30% / 70%
Alpine OVERCUT L32-L38 L35 0.334 0.475 41% / 59%
Haas F1 Team OVERCUT L27-L33 L30 0.253 0.801 24% / 76%
Cadillac OVERCUT L22-L26 L24 0.260 0.801 25% / 75%
Racing Bulls OVERCUT L27-L33 L30 0.253 0.604 30% / 70%
Williams OVERCUT L27-L33 L30 0.253 0.604 30% / 70%

Stint Extension Decision Map

Extension recommendation for the opening stint around the first pit window.

McLaren MARGINAL
Viability
68%
Penalty
0.189 s

MEDIUM stint | Extend up to +3 laps | Window L27-L33

Mercedes MARGINAL
Viability
68%
Penalty
0.189 s

MEDIUM stint | Extend up to +3 laps | Window L27-L33

Aston Martin MARGINAL
Viability
68%
Penalty
0.189 s

MEDIUM stint | Extend up to +3 laps | Window L27-L33

Red Bull Racing MARGINAL
Viability
58%
Penalty
0.126 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +0 laps | Window L22-L26

Audi MARGINAL
Viability
68%
Penalty
0.189 s

MEDIUM stint | Extend up to +3 laps | Window L27-L33

Ferrari MARGINAL
Viability
68%
Penalty
0.189 s

MEDIUM stint | Extend up to +3 laps | Window L27-L33

Alpine EXTEND
Viability
72%
Penalty
0.198 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +4 laps | Window L32-L38

Haas F1 Team MARGINAL
Viability
68%
Penalty
0.189 s

MEDIUM stint | Extend up to +3 laps | Window L27-L33

Cadillac MARGINAL
Viability
58%
Penalty
0.126 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +0 laps | Window L22-L26

Racing Bulls MARGINAL
Viability
68%
Penalty
0.189 s

MEDIUM stint | Extend up to +3 laps | Window L27-L33

Williams MARGINAL
Viability
68%
Penalty
0.189 s

MEDIUM stint | Extend up to +3 laps | Window L27-L33

Highlights

  • Best extension case is Alpine (EXTEND) with 72% viability and +4 laps on HARD.
  • Highest extension penalty appears at Alpine (0.198s), so stretching beyond L32-L38 is likely costly.
  • Extension call mix across teams is EXTEND: 1, MARGINAL: 10, showing how constrained the first-stop phase is.

Stint Extension Table

TeamStint TyrePit WindowMax Extend (laps)Penalty (s)ViabilityCall
McLaren MEDIUM L27-L33 3 0.189 68% MARGINAL
Mercedes MEDIUM L27-L33 3 0.189 68% MARGINAL
Aston Martin MEDIUM L27-L33 3 0.189 68% MARGINAL
Red Bull Racing HARD L22-L26 0 0.126 58% MARGINAL
Audi MEDIUM L27-L33 3 0.189 68% MARGINAL
Ferrari MEDIUM L27-L33 3 0.189 68% MARGINAL
Alpine HARD L32-L38 4 0.198 72% EXTEND
Haas F1 Team MEDIUM L27-L33 3 0.189 68% MARGINAL
Cadillac HARD L22-L26 0 0.126 58% MARGINAL
Racing Bulls MEDIUM L27-L33 3 0.189 68% MARGINAL
Williams MEDIUM L27-L33 3 0.189 68% MARGINAL

Defensive vs Aggressive Mode Map

Race-mode profile based on tactical edge, degradation and stop model.

McLaren DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
5%
Defensive
95%

Primary trigger L27-L33 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Mercedes DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
5%
Defensive
95%

Primary trigger L27-L33 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Aston Martin DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
5%
Defensive
95%

Primary trigger L27-L33 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Red Bull Racing AGGRESSIVE
Aggressive
85%
Defensive
15%

Primary trigger L22-L26 | Push undercut threat and attack around trigger lap.

Audi DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
20%
Defensive
80%

Primary trigger L27-L33 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Ferrari DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
24%
Defensive
76%

Primary trigger L27-L33 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Alpine BALANCED
Aggressive
46%
Defensive
54%

Primary trigger L32-L38 | Flexible call: react to traffic and tyre state.

Haas F1 Team DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
5%
Defensive
95%

Primary trigger L27-L33 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Cadillac DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
5%
Defensive
95%

Primary trigger L22-L26 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Racing Bulls DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
23%
Defensive
77%

Primary trigger L27-L33 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Williams DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
22%
Defensive
78%

Primary trigger L27-L33 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Highlights

  • Most aggressive profile is Red Bull Racing (85%) around L22-L26; most defensive is McLaren (95%).
  • Balanced-mode teams are Alpine, indicating higher adaptability to SC/VSC or traffic disruptions.
  • Primary trigger windows should be treated as action zones, with final call gated by tyre state and release traffic.

Race Mode Table

TeamModeAggressiveDefensivePrimary TriggerGuidance
McLaren DEFENSIVE 5% 95% L27-L33 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Mercedes DEFENSIVE 5% 95% L27-L33 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Aston Martin DEFENSIVE 5% 95% L27-L33 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Red Bull Racing AGGRESSIVE 85% 15% L22-L26 Push undercut threat and attack around trigger lap.
Audi DEFENSIVE 20% 80% L27-L33 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Ferrari DEFENSIVE 24% 76% L27-L33 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Alpine BALANCED 46% 54% L32-L38 Flexible call: react to traffic and tyre state.
Haas F1 Team DEFENSIVE 5% 95% L27-L33 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Cadillac DEFENSIVE 5% 95% L22-L26 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Racing Bulls DEFENSIVE 23% 77% L27-L33 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Williams DEFENSIVE 22% 78% L27-L33 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Compound Pace Delta Visual

Bar length shows pace deficit to each team's fastest compound projection (s).

Soft Medium Hard
McLaren
Soft
2.643 s
Medium
0.000 s
Hard
4.485 s
Mercedes
Soft
1.206 s
Medium
0.000 s
Hard
1.326 s
Aston Martin
Soft
1.611 s
Medium
0.000 s
Hard
0.741 s
Red Bull Racing
Soft
0.379 s
Medium
0.000 s
Hard
0.240 s
Audi
Soft
1.806 s
Medium
0.000 s
Hard
0.446 s
Ferrari
Soft
1.262 s
Medium
0.000 s
Hard
0.392 s
Alpine
Soft
0.000 s
Medium
1.109 s
Hard
0.684 s
Haas F1 Team
Soft
1.386 s
Medium
0.000 s
Hard
1.079 s
Cadillac
Soft
1.409 s
Medium
2.833 s
Hard
0.000 s
Racing Bulls
Soft
1.992 s
Medium
0.000 s
Hard
0.419 s
Williams
Soft
3.057 s
Medium
0.000 s
Hard
0.419 s

Highlights

  • Team-best compound split is Hard: 1 team(s), Medium: 9 team(s), Soft: 1 team(s).
  • Strongest absolute compound delta is McLaren on Medium (+0.000s to own best baseline).
  • Top compound-efficient teams: McLaren (Medium, +0.000s) | Mercedes (Medium, +0.000s) | Aston Martin (Medium, +0.000s).

Team Stint Pace By Compound

TeamSoft PaceMedium PaceHard Pace
McLaren1:20.7191:18.0771:22.562
Mercedes1:22.4421:21.2361:22.562
Aston Martin1:23.4321:21.8211:22.562
Red Bull Racing1:22.7761:22.3971:22.637
Audi1:23.9221:22.1161:22.562
Ferrari1:23.4321:22.1701:22.562
Alpine1:21.8781:22.9861:22.562
Haas F1 Team1:23.5291:22.1431:23.223
Cadillac1:23.9711:25.3951:22.562
Racing Bulls1:24.1351:22.1431:22.562
Williams1:25.2001:22.1431:22.562

Team Degradation Outlook

TeamMean Deg (s/lap)Avg Expected Stops
Alpine0.0551.49
Aston Martin0.071.59
Audi0.071.59
Ferrari0.071.59
Haas F1 Team0.071.59
McLaren0.071.64
Mercedes0.071.59
Racing Bulls0.071.59
Williams0.071.6
Cadillac0.141.96
Red Bull Racing0.141.91