PaddockIQ

Strategy Lab

2026 Round 5 | Canadian Grand Prix

Race laps considered: 68

Data basis: current weekend sessions (primary signal) + previous same-GP editions (secondary context).

Hybrid strategy model active | ML train set: 2025 2025-R10, 2024-R9, 2023-R8, 2022-R9, 2019-R7 (40 team-rounds)

Pit Window + Stop Load Map

Pit windows and expected stop load by team.

L1 L11 L23 L34 L45 L57 L68
Mercedes Expected Stops: 1.56
HARD -> MEDIUM
MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L32-L38 Stop 2 Window: L47-L53
Ferrari Expected Stops: 1.55
HARD -> MEDIUM
MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L32-L38 Stop 2 Window: L47-L53
McLaren Expected Stops: 1.71
HARD -> MEDIUM
MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L23-L28 Stop 2 Window: L46-L51
Red Bull Racing Expected Stops: 1.44
HARD -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L32-L38 Stop 2 Window: -
Racing Bulls Expected Stops: 1.68
HARD -> MEDIUM
MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L23-L28 Stop 2 Window: L45-L51
Audi Expected Stops: 1.45
HARD -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L32-L38 Stop 2 Window: -
Williams Expected Stops: 1.46
HARD -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L32-L38 Stop 2 Window: -
Aston Martin Expected Stops: 1.44
HARD -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L32-L38 Stop 2 Window: -
Alpine Expected Stops: 1.5
HARD -> MEDIUM
MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L32-L38 Stop 2 Window: L47-L53
Haas F1 Team Expected Stops: 1.45
MEDIUM -> HARD
Stop 1 Window: L28-L34 Stop 2 Window: -
Cadillac Expected Stops: 1.24
HARD -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L35-L41 Stop 2 Window: -

Highlights

  • Earliest projected first stop is McLaren (L23-L28); latest is Cadillac (L35-L41).
  • Highest stop load is McLaren at 1.71 stops, while Cadillac is lowest at 1.24.
  • Opening compound paths show early intent: Mercedes: HARD -> MEDIUM, then MEDIUM -> MEDIUM | Ferrari: HARD -> MEDIUM, then MEDIUM -> MEDIUM | McLaren: HARD -> MEDIUM, then MEDIUM -> MEDIUM.

Team Strategy + Pit Stop Forecast

TeamExpected StopsP(1)P(2)P(3+)StrategyPit Window 1Pit1 TyrePit Window 2Pit2 Tyre
Mercedes 1.56 44.3% 55.7% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM -> MEDIUM L32-L38 HARD -> MEDIUM L47-L53 MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Ferrari 1.55 44.5% 55.5% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM -> MEDIUM L32-L38 HARD -> MEDIUM L47-L53 MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
McLaren 1.71 29.0% 71.0% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM -> MEDIUM L23-L28 HARD -> MEDIUM L46-L51 MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Red Bull Racing 1.44 55.9% 44.1% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM L32-L38 HARD -> MEDIUM -
Racing Bulls 1.68 31.6% 68.4% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM -> MEDIUM L23-L28 HARD -> MEDIUM L45-L51 MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Audi 1.45 55.5% 44.5% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM L32-L38 HARD -> MEDIUM -
Williams 1.46 54.0% 46.0% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM L32-L38 HARD -> MEDIUM -
Aston Martin 1.44 55.7% 44.3% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM L32-L38 HARD -> MEDIUM -
Alpine 1.5 49.9% 50.1% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM -> MEDIUM L32-L38 HARD -> MEDIUM L47-L53 MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Haas F1 Team 1.45 55.2% 44.8% 0.0% MEDIUM -> HARD L28-L34 MEDIUM -> HARD -
Cadillac 1.24 76.5% 23.5% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM L35-L41 HARD -> MEDIUM -

Undercut vs Overcut Edge Map

Tactical edge view with trigger timing and viability scores.

Mercedes OVERCUT
Undercut
0.093 s
Overcut
0.785 s

Trigger: L32-L38 (center L35) | Viability U/O: 11% / 89%

Ferrari OVERCUT
Undercut
0.094 s
Overcut
0.785 s

Trigger: L32-L38 (center L35) | Viability U/O: 11% / 89%

McLaren OVERCUT
Undercut
0.141 s
Overcut
0.785 s

Trigger: L23-L28 (center L26) | Viability U/O: 15% / 85%

Red Bull Racing OVERCUT
Undercut
0.115 s
Overcut
0.785 s

Trigger: L32-L38 (center L35) | Viability U/O: 13% / 87%

Racing Bulls UNDERCUT
Undercut
0.498 s
Overcut
0.276 s

Trigger: L23-L28 (center L26) | Viability U/O: 64% / 36%

Audi OVERCUT
Undercut
0.209 s
Overcut
0.776 s

Trigger: L32-L38 (center L35) | Viability U/O: 21% / 79%

Williams OVERCUT
Undercut
0.211 s
Overcut
0.672 s

Trigger: L32-L38 (center L35) | Viability U/O: 24% / 76%

Aston Martin OVERCUT
Undercut
0.116 s
Overcut
0.785 s

Trigger: L32-L38 (center L35) | Viability U/O: 13% / 87%

Alpine UNDERCUT
Undercut
0.541 s
Overcut
0.170 s

Trigger: L32-L38 (center L35) | Viability U/O: 76% / 24%

Haas F1 Team OVERCUT
Undercut
0.132 s
Overcut
0.547 s

Trigger: L28-L34 (center L31) | Viability U/O: 19% / 81%

Cadillac OVERCUT
Undercut
0.079 s
Overcut
0.852 s

Trigger: L35-L41 (center L38) | Viability U/O: 8% / 92%

Highlights

  • Strongest undercut edge is Alpine at 0.541s around L32-L38; strongest overcut edge is Cadillac at 0.852s.
  • 0 team(s) project a BALANCED call, while others show clearer bias between undercut and overcut viability.
  • Highest call asymmetry: Cadillac U/O 8%/92% | Mercedes U/O 11%/89%.

Undercut / Overcut Strategy Table

TeamPreferred CallTrigger WindowTrigger LapUndercut Gain (s)Overcut Gain (s)Viability U/O
Mercedes OVERCUT L32-L38 L35 0.093 0.785 11% / 89%
Ferrari OVERCUT L32-L38 L35 0.094 0.785 11% / 89%
McLaren OVERCUT L23-L28 L26 0.141 0.785 15% / 85%
Red Bull Racing OVERCUT L32-L38 L35 0.115 0.785 13% / 87%
Racing Bulls UNDERCUT L23-L28 L26 0.498 0.276 64% / 36%
Audi OVERCUT L32-L38 L35 0.209 0.776 21% / 79%
Williams OVERCUT L32-L38 L35 0.211 0.672 24% / 76%
Aston Martin OVERCUT L32-L38 L35 0.116 0.785 13% / 87%
Alpine UNDERCUT L32-L38 L35 0.541 0.170 76% / 24%
Haas F1 Team OVERCUT L28-L34 L31 0.132 0.547 19% / 81%
Cadillac OVERCUT L35-L41 L38 0.079 0.852 8% / 92%

Stint Extension Decision Map

Extension recommendation for the opening stint around the first pit window.

Mercedes MARGINAL
Viability
67%
Penalty
0.126 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +2 laps | Window L32-L38

Ferrari MARGINAL
Viability
67%
Penalty
0.126 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +2 laps | Window L32-L38

McLaren MARGINAL
Viability
65%
Penalty
0.077 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +1 laps | Window L23-L28

Red Bull Racing MARGINAL
Viability
67%
Penalty
0.126 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +2 laps | Window L32-L38

Racing Bulls MARGINAL
Viability
65%
Penalty
0.243 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +3 laps | Window L23-L28

Audi MARGINAL
Viability
68%
Penalty
0.189 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +3 laps | Window L32-L38

Williams MARGINAL
Viability
68%
Penalty
0.189 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +3 laps | Window L32-L38

Aston Martin MARGINAL
Viability
67%
Penalty
0.126 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +2 laps | Window L32-L38

Alpine MARGINAL
Viability
70%
Penalty
0.315 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +5 laps | Window L32-L38

Haas F1 Team MARGINAL
Viability
68%
Penalty
0.189 s

MEDIUM stint | Extend up to +3 laps | Window L28-L34

Cadillac EXTEND
Viability
80%
Penalty
0.135 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +5 laps | Window L35-L41

Highlights

  • Best extension case is Cadillac (EXTEND) with 80% viability and +5 laps on HARD.
  • Highest extension penalty appears at Alpine (0.315s), so stretching beyond L32-L38 is likely costly.
  • Extension call mix across teams is EXTEND: 1, MARGINAL: 10, showing how constrained the first-stop phase is.

Stint Extension Table

TeamStint TyrePit WindowMax Extend (laps)Penalty (s)ViabilityCall
Mercedes HARD L32-L38 2 0.126 67% MARGINAL
Ferrari HARD L32-L38 2 0.126 67% MARGINAL
McLaren HARD L23-L28 1 0.077 65% MARGINAL
Red Bull Racing HARD L32-L38 2 0.126 67% MARGINAL
Racing Bulls HARD L23-L28 3 0.243 65% MARGINAL
Audi HARD L32-L38 3 0.189 68% MARGINAL
Williams HARD L32-L38 3 0.189 68% MARGINAL
Aston Martin HARD L32-L38 2 0.126 67% MARGINAL
Alpine HARD L32-L38 5 0.315 70% MARGINAL
Haas F1 Team MEDIUM L28-L34 3 0.189 68% MARGINAL
Cadillac HARD L35-L41 5 0.135 80% EXTEND

Defensive vs Aggressive Mode Map

Race-mode profile based on tactical edge, degradation and stop model.

Mercedes DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
5%
Defensive
95%

Primary trigger L32-L38 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Ferrari DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
5%
Defensive
95%

Primary trigger L32-L38 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

McLaren DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
5%
Defensive
95%

Primary trigger L23-L28 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Red Bull Racing DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
5%
Defensive
95%

Primary trigger L32-L38 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Racing Bulls AGGRESSIVE
Aggressive
80%
Defensive
20%

Primary trigger L23-L28 | Push undercut threat and attack around trigger lap.

Audi DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
5%
Defensive
95%

Primary trigger L32-L38 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Williams DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
12%
Defensive
88%

Primary trigger L32-L38 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Aston Martin DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
5%
Defensive
95%

Primary trigger L32-L38 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Alpine AGGRESSIVE
Aggressive
95%
Defensive
5%

Primary trigger L32-L38 | Push undercut threat and attack around trigger lap.

Haas F1 Team DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
15%
Defensive
85%

Primary trigger L28-L34 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Cadillac DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
5%
Defensive
95%

Primary trigger L35-L41 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Highlights

  • Most aggressive profile is Alpine (95%) around L32-L38; most defensive is Mercedes (95%).
  • No team is fully balanced in this projection; race mode is polarized between attack and cover approaches.
  • Primary trigger windows should be treated as action zones, with final call gated by tyre state and release traffic.

Race Mode Table

TeamModeAggressiveDefensivePrimary TriggerGuidance
Mercedes DEFENSIVE 5% 95% L32-L38 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Ferrari DEFENSIVE 5% 95% L32-L38 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
McLaren DEFENSIVE 5% 95% L23-L28 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Red Bull Racing DEFENSIVE 5% 95% L32-L38 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Racing Bulls AGGRESSIVE 80% 20% L23-L28 Push undercut threat and attack around trigger lap.
Audi DEFENSIVE 5% 95% L32-L38 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Williams DEFENSIVE 12% 88% L32-L38 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Aston Martin DEFENSIVE 5% 95% L32-L38 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Alpine AGGRESSIVE 95% 5% L32-L38 Push undercut threat and attack around trigger lap.
Haas F1 Team DEFENSIVE 15% 85% L28-L34 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Cadillac DEFENSIVE 5% 95% L35-L41 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Compound Pace Delta Visual

Bar length shows pace deficit to each team's fastest compound projection (s).

Soft Medium Hard
Mercedes
Soft
2.747 s
Medium
2.264 s
Hard
0.000 s
Ferrari
Soft
2.341 s
Medium
1.858 s
Hard
0.000 s
McLaren
Soft
1.901 s
Medium
1.418 s
Hard
0.000 s
Red Bull Racing
Soft
1.705 s
Medium
1.222 s
Hard
0.000 s
Racing Bulls
Soft
1.339 s
Medium
0.803 s
Hard
0.000 s
Audi
Soft
1.455 s
Medium
0.972 s
Hard
0.000 s
Williams
Soft
1.320 s
Medium
0.837 s
Hard
0.000 s
Aston Martin
Soft
1.591 s
Medium
0.856 s
Hard
0.000 s
Alpine
Soft
0.645 s
Medium
0.162 s
Hard
0.000 s
Haas F1 Team
Soft
0.483 s
Medium
0.000 s
Hard
0.114 s
Cadillac
Soft
1.124 s
Medium
1.189 s
Hard
0.000 s

Highlights

  • Team-best compound split is Hard: 10 team(s), Medium: 1 team(s).
  • Strongest absolute compound delta is Mercedes on Hard (+0.000s to own best baseline).
  • Top compound-efficient teams: Mercedes (Hard, +0.000s) | Ferrari (Hard, +0.000s) | McLaren (Hard, +0.000s).

Team Stint Pace By Compound

TeamSoft PaceMedium PaceHard Pace
Mercedes1:18.6421:18.1591:15.896
Ferrari1:18.6421:18.1591:16.301
McLaren1:18.6421:18.1591:16.741
Red Bull Racing1:18.6421:18.1591:16.937
Racing Bulls1:18.6421:18.1061:17.303
Audi1:18.6421:18.1591:17.188
Williams1:18.6421:18.1591:17.323
Aston Martin1:18.8941:18.1591:17.303
Alpine1:18.6421:18.1591:17.997
Haas F1 Team1:18.6421:18.1591:18.273
Cadillac1:18.4271:18.4921:17.303

Team Degradation Outlook

TeamMean Deg (s/lap)Avg Expected Stops
Cadillac0.031.24
Alpine0.071.5
Aston Martin0.071.44
Audi0.071.45
Ferrari0.071.55
Haas F1 Team0.071.45
Mercedes0.071.56
Red Bull Racing0.071.44
Williams0.071.46
McLaren0.0861.71
Racing Bulls0.091.68