PaddockIQ

Strategy Lab

2026 Round 4 | Miami Grand Prix

Race laps considered: 57

Data basis: current weekend sessions (primary signal) + previous same-GP editions (secondary context).

Hybrid strategy model active | ML train set: 2025 2025-R6, 2024-R6, 2023-R5, 2022-R5 (40 team-rounds)

Pit Window + Stop Load Map

Pit windows and expected stop load by team.

L1 L10 L19 L28 L38 L48 L57
McLaren Expected Stops: 1.5
HARD -> MEDIUM
MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L27-L32 Stop 2 Window: L39-L45
Ferrari Expected Stops: 1.39
HARD -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L27-L33 Stop 2 Window: -
Red Bull Racing Expected Stops: 1.26
HARD -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L28-L33 Stop 2 Window: -
Mercedes Expected Stops: 1.47
HARD -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L20-L26 Stop 2 Window: -
Alpine Expected Stops: 1.68
HARD -> MEDIUM
MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L20-L25 Stop 2 Window: L38-L43
Aston Martin Expected Stops: 1.39
HARD -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L27-L33 Stop 2 Window: -
Audi Expected Stops: 1.68
HARD -> MEDIUM
MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L20-L25 Stop 2 Window: L38-L43
Haas F1 Team Expected Stops: 1.51
HARD -> MEDIUM
MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L27-L32 Stop 2 Window: L39-L45
Williams Expected Stops: 1.74
HARD -> MEDIUM
MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L20-L25 Stop 2 Window: L38-L43
Racing Bulls Expected Stops: 1.51
HARD -> MEDIUM
MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L27-L32 Stop 2 Window: L39-L45
Cadillac Expected Stops: 1.39
HARD -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L27-L32 Stop 2 Window: -

Highlights

  • Earliest projected first stop is Alpine (L20-L25); latest is Red Bull Racing (L28-L33).
  • Highest stop load is Williams at 1.74 stops, while Red Bull Racing is lowest at 1.26.
  • Opening compound paths show early intent: McLaren: HARD -> MEDIUM, then MEDIUM -> MEDIUM | Ferrari: HARD -> MEDIUM | Red Bull Racing: HARD -> MEDIUM.

Team Strategy + Pit Stop Forecast

TeamExpected StopsP(1)P(2)P(3+)StrategyPit Window 1Pit1 TyrePit Window 2Pit2 Tyre
McLaren 1.5 49.5% 50.5% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM -> MEDIUM L27-L32 HARD -> MEDIUM L39-L45 MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Ferrari 1.39 61.3% 38.7% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM L27-L33 HARD -> MEDIUM -
Red Bull Racing 1.26 73.9% 26.1% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM L28-L33 HARD -> MEDIUM -
Mercedes 1.47 53.0% 47.0% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM L20-L26 HARD -> MEDIUM -
Alpine 1.68 31.7% 68.3% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM -> MEDIUM L20-L25 HARD -> MEDIUM L38-L43 MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Aston Martin 1.39 60.9% 39.1% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM L27-L33 HARD -> MEDIUM -
Audi 1.68 31.7% 68.3% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM -> MEDIUM L20-L25 HARD -> MEDIUM L38-L43 MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Haas F1 Team 1.51 49.4% 50.6% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM -> MEDIUM L27-L32 HARD -> MEDIUM L39-L45 MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Williams 1.74 26.1% 73.9% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM -> MEDIUM L20-L25 HARD -> MEDIUM L38-L43 MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Racing Bulls 1.51 49.4% 50.6% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM -> MEDIUM L27-L32 HARD -> MEDIUM L39-L45 MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Cadillac 1.39 60.7% 39.3% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM L27-L32 HARD -> MEDIUM -

Undercut vs Overcut Edge Map

Tactical edge view with trigger timing and viability scores.

McLaren OVERCUT
Undercut
0.267 s
Overcut
0.785 s

Trigger: L27-L32 (center L30) | Viability U/O: 25% / 75%

Ferrari OVERCUT
Undercut
0.188 s
Overcut
0.785 s

Trigger: L27-L33 (center L30) | Viability U/O: 19% / 81%

Red Bull Racing OVERCUT
Undercut
0.184 s
Overcut
0.785 s

Trigger: L28-L33 (center L30) | Viability U/O: 19% / 81%

Mercedes OVERCUT
Undercut
0.108 s
Overcut
0.785 s

Trigger: L20-L26 (center L23) | Viability U/O: 12% / 88%

Alpine OVERCUT
Undercut
0.212 s
Overcut
0.785 s

Trigger: L20-L25 (center L22) | Viability U/O: 21% / 79%

Aston Martin OVERCUT
Undercut
0.213 s
Overcut
0.785 s

Trigger: L27-L33 (center L30) | Viability U/O: 21% / 79%

Audi OVERCUT
Undercut
0.212 s
Overcut
0.785 s

Trigger: L20-L25 (center L22) | Viability U/O: 21% / 79%

Haas F1 Team OVERCUT
Undercut
0.267 s
Overcut
0.785 s

Trigger: L27-L32 (center L30) | Viability U/O: 25% / 75%

Williams OVERCUT
Undercut
0.212 s
Overcut
0.785 s

Trigger: L20-L25 (center L22) | Viability U/O: 21% / 79%

Racing Bulls OVERCUT
Undercut
0.267 s
Overcut
0.706 s

Trigger: L27-L32 (center L30) | Viability U/O: 27% / 73%

Cadillac OVERCUT
Undercut
0.266 s
Overcut
0.785 s

Trigger: L27-L32 (center L30) | Viability U/O: 25% / 75%

Highlights

  • Strongest undercut edge is McLaren at 0.267s around L27-L32; strongest overcut edge is McLaren at 0.785s.
  • 0 team(s) project a BALANCED call, while others show clearer bias between undercut and overcut viability.
  • Highest call asymmetry: Mercedes U/O 12%/88% | Ferrari U/O 19%/81%.

Undercut / Overcut Strategy Table

TeamPreferred CallTrigger WindowTrigger LapUndercut Gain (s)Overcut Gain (s)Viability U/O
McLaren OVERCUT L27-L32 L30 0.267 0.785 25% / 75%
Ferrari OVERCUT L27-L33 L30 0.188 0.785 19% / 81%
Red Bull Racing OVERCUT L28-L33 L30 0.184 0.785 19% / 81%
Mercedes OVERCUT L20-L26 L23 0.108 0.785 12% / 88%
Alpine OVERCUT L20-L25 L22 0.212 0.785 21% / 79%
Aston Martin OVERCUT L27-L33 L30 0.213 0.785 21% / 79%
Audi OVERCUT L20-L25 L22 0.212 0.785 21% / 79%
Haas F1 Team OVERCUT L27-L32 L30 0.267 0.785 25% / 75%
Williams OVERCUT L20-L25 L22 0.212 0.785 21% / 79%
Racing Bulls OVERCUT L27-L32 L30 0.267 0.706 27% / 73%
Cadillac OVERCUT L27-L32 L30 0.266 0.785 25% / 75%

Stint Extension Decision Map

Extension recommendation for the opening stint around the first pit window.

McLaren MARGINAL
Viability
68%
Penalty
0.189 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +3 laps | Window L27-L32

Ferrari MARGINAL
Viability
68%
Penalty
0.189 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +3 laps | Window L27-L33

Red Bull Racing EXTEND
Viability
72%
Penalty
0.198 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +4 laps | Window L28-L33

Mercedes MARGINAL
Viability
66%
Penalty
0.143 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +2 laps | Window L20-L26

Alpine MARGINAL
Viability
65%
Penalty
0.081 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +1 laps | Window L20-L25

Aston Martin MARGINAL
Viability
68%
Penalty
0.189 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +3 laps | Window L27-L33

Audi MARGINAL
Viability
65%
Penalty
0.081 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +1 laps | Window L20-L25

Haas F1 Team MARGINAL
Viability
68%
Penalty
0.189 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +3 laps | Window L27-L32

Williams MARGINAL
Viability
65%
Penalty
0.081 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +1 laps | Window L20-L25

Racing Bulls MARGINAL
Viability
68%
Penalty
0.189 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +3 laps | Window L27-L32

Cadillac MARGINAL
Viability
69%
Penalty
0.173 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +3 laps | Window L27-L32

Highlights

  • Best extension case is Red Bull Racing (EXTEND) with 72% viability and +4 laps on HARD.
  • Highest extension penalty appears at Red Bull Racing (0.198s), so stretching beyond L28-L33 is likely costly.
  • Extension call mix across teams is EXTEND: 1, MARGINAL: 10, showing how constrained the first-stop phase is.

Stint Extension Table

TeamStint TyrePit WindowMax Extend (laps)Penalty (s)ViabilityCall
McLaren HARD L27-L32 3 0.189 68% MARGINAL
Ferrari HARD L27-L33 3 0.189 68% MARGINAL
Red Bull Racing HARD L28-L33 4 0.198 72% EXTEND
Mercedes HARD L20-L26 2 0.143 66% MARGINAL
Alpine HARD L20-L25 1 0.081 65% MARGINAL
Aston Martin HARD L27-L33 3 0.189 68% MARGINAL
Audi HARD L20-L25 1 0.081 65% MARGINAL
Haas F1 Team HARD L27-L32 3 0.189 68% MARGINAL
Williams HARD L20-L25 1 0.081 65% MARGINAL
Racing Bulls HARD L27-L32 3 0.189 68% MARGINAL
Cadillac HARD L27-L32 3 0.173 69% MARGINAL

Defensive vs Aggressive Mode Map

Race-mode profile based on tactical edge, degradation and stop model.

McLaren DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
7%
Defensive
93%

Primary trigger L27-L32 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Ferrari DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
5%
Defensive
95%

Primary trigger L27-L33 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Red Bull Racing DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
5%
Defensive
95%

Primary trigger L28-L33 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Mercedes DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
5%
Defensive
95%

Primary trigger L20-L26 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Alpine DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
5%
Defensive
95%

Primary trigger L20-L25 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Aston Martin DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
5%
Defensive
95%

Primary trigger L27-L33 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Audi DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
5%
Defensive
95%

Primary trigger L20-L25 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Haas F1 Team DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
7%
Defensive
93%

Primary trigger L27-L32 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Williams DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
5%
Defensive
95%

Primary trigger L20-L25 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Racing Bulls DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
14%
Defensive
86%

Primary trigger L27-L32 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Cadillac DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
8%
Defensive
92%

Primary trigger L27-L32 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Highlights

  • Most aggressive profile is Racing Bulls (14%) around L27-L32; most defensive is Ferrari (95%).
  • No team is fully balanced in this projection; race mode is polarized between attack and cover approaches.
  • Primary trigger windows should be treated as action zones, with final call gated by tyre state and release traffic.

Race Mode Table

TeamModeAggressiveDefensivePrimary TriggerGuidance
McLaren DEFENSIVE 7% 93% L27-L32 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Ferrari DEFENSIVE 5% 95% L27-L33 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Red Bull Racing DEFENSIVE 5% 95% L28-L33 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Mercedes DEFENSIVE 5% 95% L20-L26 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Alpine DEFENSIVE 5% 95% L20-L25 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Aston Martin DEFENSIVE 5% 95% L27-L33 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Audi DEFENSIVE 5% 95% L20-L25 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Haas F1 Team DEFENSIVE 7% 93% L27-L32 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Williams DEFENSIVE 5% 95% L20-L25 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Racing Bulls DEFENSIVE 14% 86% L27-L32 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Cadillac DEFENSIVE 8% 92% L27-L32 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Compound Pace Delta Visual

Bar length shows pace deficit to each team's fastest compound projection (s).

Soft Medium Hard
McLaren
Soft
0.000 s
Medium
6.013 s
Hard
3.476 s
Ferrari
Soft
0.000 s
Medium
5.749 s
Hard
2.479 s
Red Bull Racing
Soft
0.000 s
Medium
3.410 s
Hard
0.716 s
Mercedes
Soft
0.000 s
Medium
5.749 s
Hard
2.584 s
Alpine
Soft
0.000 s
Medium
5.749 s
Hard
3.999 s
Aston Martin
Soft
0.000 s
Medium
1.964 s
Hard
0.359 s
Audi
Soft
0.000 s
Medium
5.749 s
Hard
4.279 s
Haas F1 Team
Soft
0.000 s
Medium
5.749 s
Hard
3.978 s
Williams
Soft
0.000 s
Medium
5.749 s
Hard
4.176 s
Racing Bulls
Soft
0.000 s
Medium
5.749 s
Hard
4.916 s
Cadillac
Soft
0.000 s
Medium
6.759 s
Hard
3.500 s

Highlights

  • Team-best compound split is Soft: 11 team(s).
  • Strongest absolute compound delta is McLaren on Soft (+0.000s to own best baseline).
  • Top compound-efficient teams: McLaren (Soft, +0.000s) | Ferrari (Soft, +0.000s) | Red Bull Racing (Soft, +0.000s).

Team Stint Pace By Compound

TeamSoft PaceMedium PaceHard Pace
McLaren1:30.7821:36.7961:34.259
Ferrari1:31.0471:36.7961:33.526
Red Bull Racing1:31.0471:34.4571:31.763
Mercedes1:31.0471:36.7961:33.631
Alpine1:31.0471:36.7961:35.046
Aston Martin1:34.8321:36.7961:35.192
Audi1:31.0471:36.7961:35.326
Haas F1 Team1:31.0471:36.7961:35.025
Williams1:31.0471:36.7961:35.223
Racing Bulls1:31.0471:36.7961:35.963
Cadillac1:31.0471:37.8061:34.547

Team Degradation Outlook

TeamMean Deg (s/lap)Avg Expected Stops
Red Bull Racing0.0551.26
Cadillac0.0641.39
Aston Martin0.071.39
Ferrari0.071.39
Haas F1 Team0.071.51
McLaren0.071.5
Racing Bulls0.071.51
Mercedes0.0791.47
Alpine0.091.68
Audi0.091.68
Williams0.091.74