PaddockIQ

Strategy Lab

2026 Round 2 | Chinese Grand Prix

Race laps considered: 56

Data basis: current weekend sessions (primary signal) + previous same-GP editions (secondary context).

Hybrid strategy model active | ML train set: 2025 2025-R2, 2024-R5, 2019-R3, 2018-R3, 2017-R2 (40 team-rounds)

Pit Window + Stop Load Map

Pit windows and expected stop load by team.

L1 L9 L19 L28 L37 L47 L56
McLaren Expected Stops: 1.32
HARD -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L28-L34 Stop 2 Window: -
Mercedes Expected Stops: 1.62
HARD -> MEDIUM
MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L21-L25 Stop 2 Window: L38-L43
Ferrari Expected Stops: 1.44
HARD -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L28-L34 Stop 2 Window: -
Audi Expected Stops: 1.43
HARD -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L28-L34 Stop 2 Window: -
Haas F1 Team Expected Stops: 1.32
HARD -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L28-L34 Stop 2 Window: -
Williams Expected Stops: 1.32
MEDIUM -> HARD
Stop 1 Window: L26-L32 Stop 2 Window: -
Alpine Expected Stops: 1.62
HARD -> MEDIUM
MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L21-L25 Stop 2 Window: L38-L43
Racing Bulls Expected Stops: 1.32
MEDIUM -> HARD
Stop 1 Window: L26-L32 Stop 2 Window: -
Cadillac Expected Stops: 1.62
HARD -> MEDIUM
MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L21-L25 Stop 2 Window: L38-L43
Red Bull Racing Expected Stops: 1.62
HARD -> MEDIUM
MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L21-L25 Stop 2 Window: L38-L43

Highlights

  • Earliest projected first stop is Mercedes (L21-L25); latest is McLaren (L28-L34).
  • Highest stop load is Mercedes at 1.62 stops, while McLaren is lowest at 1.32.
  • Opening compound paths show early intent: McLaren: HARD -> MEDIUM | Mercedes: HARD -> MEDIUM, then MEDIUM -> MEDIUM | Ferrari: HARD -> MEDIUM.

Team Strategy + Pit Stop Forecast

TeamExpected StopsP(1)P(2)P(3+)StrategyPit Window 1Pit1 TyrePit Window 2Pit2 Tyre
McLaren 1.32 68.4% 31.6% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM L28-L34 HARD -> MEDIUM -
Mercedes 1.62 38.0% 62.0% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM -> MEDIUM L21-L25 HARD -> MEDIUM L38-L43 MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Ferrari 1.44 56.3% 43.7% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM L28-L34 HARD -> MEDIUM -
Audi 1.43 56.5% 43.5% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM L28-L34 HARD -> MEDIUM -
Haas F1 Team 1.32 68.4% 31.6% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM L28-L34 HARD -> MEDIUM -
Williams 1.32 68.4% 31.6% 0.0% MEDIUM -> HARD L26-L32 MEDIUM -> HARD -
Alpine 1.62 37.9% 62.1% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM -> MEDIUM L21-L25 HARD -> MEDIUM L38-L43 MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Racing Bulls 1.32 68.4% 31.6% 0.0% MEDIUM -> HARD L26-L32 MEDIUM -> HARD -
Cadillac 1.62 37.9% 62.1% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM -> MEDIUM L21-L25 HARD -> MEDIUM L38-L43 MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Red Bull Racing 1.62 37.9% 62.1% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM -> MEDIUM L21-L25 HARD -> MEDIUM L38-L43 MEDIUM -> MEDIUM

Undercut vs Overcut Edge Map

Tactical edge view with trigger timing and viability scores.

McLaren OVERCUT
Undercut
0.117 s
Overcut
0.785 s

Trigger: L28-L34 (center L31) | Viability U/O: 13% / 87%

Mercedes OVERCUT
Undercut
0.241 s
Overcut
0.785 s

Trigger: L21-L25 (center L23) | Viability U/O: 24% / 76%

Ferrari OVERCUT
Undercut
0.221 s
Overcut
0.660 s

Trigger: L28-L34 (center L31) | Viability U/O: 25% / 75%

Audi OVERCUT
Undercut
0.125 s
Overcut
0.785 s

Trigger: L28-L34 (center L31) | Viability U/O: 14% / 86%

Haas F1 Team UNDERCUT
Undercut
0.441 s
Overcut
0.223 s

Trigger: L28-L34 (center L31) | Viability U/O: 66% / 34%

Williams UNDERCUT
Undercut
0.432 s
Overcut
0.229 s

Trigger: L26-L32 (center L29) | Viability U/O: 65% / 35%

Alpine UNDERCUT
Undercut
0.480 s
Overcut
0.223 s

Trigger: L21-L25 (center L23) | Viability U/O: 68% / 32%

Racing Bulls BALANCED
Undercut
0.328 s
Overcut
0.298 s

Trigger: L26-L32 (center L29) | Viability U/O: 52% / 48%

Cadillac UNDERCUT
Undercut
0.480 s
Overcut
0.223 s

Trigger: L21-L25 (center L23) | Viability U/O: 68% / 32%

Red Bull Racing UNDERCUT
Undercut
0.480 s
Overcut
0.223 s

Trigger: L21-L25 (center L23) | Viability U/O: 68% / 32%

Highlights

  • Strongest undercut edge is Alpine at 0.48s around L21-L25; strongest overcut edge is McLaren at 0.785s.
  • 1 team(s) project a BALANCED call, while others show clearer bias between undercut and overcut viability.
  • Highest call asymmetry: McLaren U/O 13%/87% | Audi U/O 14%/86%.

Undercut / Overcut Strategy Table

TeamPreferred CallTrigger WindowTrigger LapUndercut Gain (s)Overcut Gain (s)Viability U/O
McLaren OVERCUT L28-L34 L31 0.117 0.785 13% / 87%
Mercedes OVERCUT L21-L25 L23 0.241 0.785 24% / 76%
Ferrari OVERCUT L28-L34 L31 0.221 0.660 25% / 75%
Audi OVERCUT L28-L34 L31 0.125 0.785 14% / 86%
Haas F1 Team UNDERCUT L28-L34 L31 0.441 0.223 66% / 34%
Williams UNDERCUT L26-L32 L29 0.432 0.229 65% / 35%
Alpine UNDERCUT L21-L25 L23 0.480 0.223 68% / 32%
Racing Bulls BALANCED L26-L32 L29 0.328 0.298 52% / 48%
Cadillac UNDERCUT L21-L25 L23 0.480 0.223 68% / 32%
Red Bull Racing UNDERCUT L21-L25 L23 0.480 0.223 68% / 32%

Stint Extension Decision Map

Extension recommendation for the opening stint around the first pit window.

McLaren MARGINAL
Viability
70%
Penalty
0.149 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +3 laps | Window L28-L34

Mercedes MARGINAL
Viability
65%
Penalty
0.081 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +1 laps | Window L21-L25

Ferrari MARGINAL
Viability
68%
Penalty
0.189 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +3 laps | Window L28-L34

Audi MARGINAL
Viability
67%
Penalty
0.126 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +2 laps | Window L28-L34

Haas F1 Team EXTEND
Viability
74%
Penalty
0.248 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +5 laps | Window L28-L34

Williams EXTEND
Viability
74%
Penalty
0.248 s

MEDIUM stint | Extend up to +5 laps | Window L26-L32

Alpine MARGINAL
Viability
65%
Penalty
0.243 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +3 laps | Window L21-L25

Racing Bulls EXTEND
Viability
74%
Penalty
0.248 s

MEDIUM stint | Extend up to +5 laps | Window L26-L32

Cadillac MARGINAL
Viability
65%
Penalty
0.243 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +3 laps | Window L21-L25

Red Bull Racing MARGINAL
Viability
65%
Penalty
0.243 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +3 laps | Window L21-L25

Highlights

  • Best extension case is Haas F1 Team (EXTEND) with 74% viability and +5 laps on HARD.
  • Highest extension penalty appears at Haas F1 Team (0.248s), so stretching beyond L28-L34 is likely costly.
  • Extension call mix across teams is EXTEND: 3, MARGINAL: 7, showing how constrained the first-stop phase is.

Stint Extension Table

TeamStint TyrePit WindowMax Extend (laps)Penalty (s)ViabilityCall
McLaren HARD L28-L34 3 0.149 70% MARGINAL
Mercedes HARD L21-L25 1 0.081 65% MARGINAL
Ferrari HARD L28-L34 3 0.189 68% MARGINAL
Audi HARD L28-L34 2 0.126 67% MARGINAL
Haas F1 Team HARD L28-L34 5 0.248 74% EXTEND
Williams MEDIUM L26-L32 5 0.248 74% EXTEND
Alpine HARD L21-L25 3 0.243 65% MARGINAL
Racing Bulls MEDIUM L26-L32 5 0.248 74% EXTEND
Cadillac HARD L21-L25 3 0.243 65% MARGINAL
Red Bull Racing HARD L21-L25 3 0.243 65% MARGINAL

Defensive vs Aggressive Mode Map

Race-mode profile based on tactical edge, degradation and stop model.

McLaren DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
5%
Defensive
95%

Primary trigger L28-L34 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Mercedes DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
5%
Defensive
95%

Primary trigger L21-L25 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Ferrari DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
14%
Defensive
86%

Primary trigger L28-L34 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Audi DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
5%
Defensive
95%

Primary trigger L28-L34 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Haas F1 Team AGGRESSIVE
Aggressive
86%
Defensive
14%

Primary trigger L28-L34 | Push undercut threat and attack around trigger lap.

Williams AGGRESSIVE
Aggressive
84%
Defensive
16%

Primary trigger L26-L32 | Push undercut threat and attack around trigger lap.

Alpine AGGRESSIVE
Aggressive
85%
Defensive
15%

Primary trigger L21-L25 | Push undercut threat and attack around trigger lap.

Racing Bulls AGGRESSIVE
Aggressive
65%
Defensive
35%

Primary trigger L26-L32 | Push undercut threat and attack around trigger lap.

Cadillac AGGRESSIVE
Aggressive
85%
Defensive
15%

Primary trigger L21-L25 | Push undercut threat and attack around trigger lap.

Red Bull Racing AGGRESSIVE
Aggressive
85%
Defensive
15%

Primary trigger L21-L25 | Push undercut threat and attack around trigger lap.

Highlights

  • Most aggressive profile is Haas F1 Team (86%) around L28-L34; most defensive is McLaren (95%).
  • No team is fully balanced in this projection; race mode is polarized between attack and cover approaches.
  • Primary trigger windows should be treated as action zones, with final call gated by tyre state and release traffic.

Race Mode Table

TeamModeAggressiveDefensivePrimary TriggerGuidance
McLaren DEFENSIVE 5% 95% L28-L34 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Mercedes DEFENSIVE 5% 95% L21-L25 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Ferrari DEFENSIVE 14% 86% L28-L34 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Audi DEFENSIVE 5% 95% L28-L34 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Haas F1 Team AGGRESSIVE 86% 14% L28-L34 Push undercut threat and attack around trigger lap.
Williams AGGRESSIVE 84% 16% L26-L32 Push undercut threat and attack around trigger lap.
Alpine AGGRESSIVE 85% 15% L21-L25 Push undercut threat and attack around trigger lap.
Racing Bulls AGGRESSIVE 65% 35% L26-L32 Push undercut threat and attack around trigger lap.
Cadillac AGGRESSIVE 85% 15% L21-L25 Push undercut threat and attack around trigger lap.
Red Bull Racing AGGRESSIVE 85% 15% L21-L25 Push undercut threat and attack around trigger lap.

Compound Pace Delta Visual

Bar length shows pace deficit to each team's fastest compound projection (s).

Soft Medium Hard
McLaren
Soft
0.000 s
Medium
3.356 s
Hard
1.678 s
Mercedes
Soft
0.000 s
Medium
2.296 s
Hard
0.661 s
Ferrari
Soft
0.000 s
Medium
0.997 s
Hard
0.323 s
Audi
Soft
0.000 s
Medium
3.687 s
Hard
1.668 s
Haas F1 Team
Soft
0.000 s
Medium
2.976 s
Hard
3.039 s
Williams
Soft
0.000 s
Medium
3.553 s
Hard
3.572 s
Alpine
Soft
0.000 s
Medium
3.885 s
Hard
3.640 s
Racing Bulls
Soft
0.000 s
Medium
4.311 s
Hard
4.556 s
Cadillac
Soft
0.000 s
Medium
6.340 s
Hard
5.605 s
Red Bull Racing
Soft
0.000 s
Medium
6.402 s
Hard
5.667 s

Highlights

  • Team-best compound split is Soft: 10 team(s).
  • Strongest absolute compound delta is McLaren on Soft (+0.000s to own best baseline).
  • Top compound-efficient teams: McLaren (Soft, +0.000s) | Mercedes (Soft, +0.000s) | Ferrari (Soft, +0.000s).

Team Stint Pace By Compound

TeamSoft PaceMedium PaceHard Pace
McLaren1:34.1501:37.5061:35.828
Mercedes1:35.1001:37.3961:35.762
Ferrari1:35.1271:36.1231:35.450
Audi1:35.4821:39.1691:37.151
Haas F1 Team1:35.1141:38.0901:38.153
Williams1:35.1141:38.6661:38.686
Alpine1:35.1141:38.9991:38.754
Racing Bulls1:35.1141:39.4251:39.670
Cadillac1:35.1141:41.4541:40.719
Red Bull Racing1:35.1141:41.5161:40.781

Team Degradation Outlook

TeamMean Deg (s/lap)Avg Expected Stops
Haas F1 Team0.0551.32
McLaren0.0551.32
Racing Bulls0.0551.32
Williams0.0551.32
Audi0.071.43
Ferrari0.071.44
Alpine0.091.62
Cadillac0.091.62
Mercedes0.091.62
Red Bull Racing0.091.62