PaddockIQ | Strategy Lab

Race laps considered: 58

Data basis: current weekend sessions (primary signal) + previous same-GP editions (secondary context).

Hybrid strategy model active | ML train set: 2025 2025-R1, 2024-R3, 2023-R3, 2022-R3, 2019-R1 (50 team-rounds)

Pit Window + Stop Load Map

Pit windows and expected stop load by team.

L1 L10 L19 L29 L39 L48 L58

Ferrari Expected Stops: 1.29

HARD -> MEDIUM

Stop 1 Window: L14-L20 Stop 2 Window: -

Racing Bulls Expected Stops: 1.16

HARD -> MEDIUM

Stop 1 Window: L24-L30 Stop 2 Window: -

Audi Expected Stops: 1.44

HARD -> MEDIUM

Stop 1 Window: L15-L21 Stop 2 Window: -

Mercedes Expected Stops: 1.12

HARD -> MEDIUM

Stop 1 Window: L25-L31 Stop 2 Window: -

McLaren Expected Stops: 1.33

HARD -> MEDIUM

Stop 1 Window: L14-L20 Stop 2 Window: -

Red Bull Racing Expected Stops: 1.52

HARD -> MEDIUM

MEDIUM -> MEDIUM

Stop 1 Window: L11-L17 Stop 2 Window: L30-L36

Williams Expected Stops: 1.24

MEDIUM -> HARD

Stop 1 Window: L16-L22 Stop 2 Window: -

Haas F1 Team Expected Stops: 1.27

MEDIUM -> HARD

Stop 1 Window: L16-L22 Stop 2 Window: -

Alpine Expected Stops: 1.12

MEDIUM -> HARD

Stop 1 Window: L25-L31 Stop 2 Window: -

Aston Martin Expected Stops: 1.32

HARD -> MEDIUM

Stop 1 Window: L14-L20 Stop 2 Window: -

Cadillac Expected Stops: 1.45

HARD -> MEDIUM

Stop 1 Window: L13-L19 Stop 2 Window: -

Highlights

Earliest projected first stop is Red Bull Racing (L11-L17); latest is Mercedes (L25-L31).
Highest stop load is Red Bull Racing at 1.52 stops, while Mercedes is lowest at 1.12.
Opening compound paths show early intent: Ferrari: HARD -> MEDIUM | Racing Bulls: HARD -> MEDIUM | Audi: HARD -> MEDIUM.

Team Strategy + Pit Stop Forecast

Team	Expected Stops	P(1)	P(2)	P(3+)	Strategy	Pit Window 1	Pit1 Tyre	Pit Window 2	Pit2 Tyre
Ferrari	1.29	71.0%	29.0%	0.0%	HARD -> MEDIUM	L14-L20	HARD -> MEDIUM		-
Racing Bulls	1.16	84.0%	16.0%	0.0%	HARD -> MEDIUM	L24-L30	HARD -> MEDIUM		-
Audi	1.44	55.8%	44.2%	0.0%	HARD -> MEDIUM	L15-L21	HARD -> MEDIUM		-
Mercedes	1.12	88.0%	12.0%	0.0%	HARD -> MEDIUM	L25-L31	HARD -> MEDIUM		-
McLaren	1.33	66.5%	33.5%	0.0%	HARD -> MEDIUM	L14-L20	HARD -> MEDIUM		-
Red Bull Racing	1.52	47.7%	52.3%	0.0%	HARD -> MEDIUM -> MEDIUM	L11-L17	HARD -> MEDIUM	L30-L36	MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Williams	1.24	75.7%	24.3%	0.0%	MEDIUM -> HARD	L16-L22	MEDIUM -> HARD		-
Haas F1 Team	1.27	72.8%	27.2%	0.0%	MEDIUM -> HARD	L16-L22	MEDIUM -> HARD		-
Alpine	1.12	88.0%	12.0%	0.0%	MEDIUM -> HARD	L25-L31	MEDIUM -> HARD		-
Aston Martin	1.32	67.6%	32.4%	0.0%	HARD -> MEDIUM	L14-L20	HARD -> MEDIUM		-
Cadillac	1.45	55.0%	45.0%	0.0%	HARD -> MEDIUM	L13-L19	HARD -> MEDIUM		-

Undercut vs Overcut Edge Map

Tactical edge view with trigger timing and viability scores.

Ferrari OVERCUT

Undercut

0.081 s

Overcut

0.801 s

Trigger: L14-L20 (center L17) | Viability U/O: 9% / 91%

Racing Bulls OVERCUT

Undercut

0.088 s

Overcut

0.777 s

Trigger: L24-L30 (center L27) | Viability U/O: 10% / 90%

Audi OVERCUT

Undercut

0.290 s

Overcut

0.777 s

Trigger: L15-L21 (center L18) | Viability U/O: 27% / 73%

Mercedes OVERCUT

Undercut

0.311 s

Overcut

0.748 s

Trigger: L25-L31 (center L28) | Viability U/O: 29% / 71%

McLaren OVERCUT

Undercut

0.266 s

Overcut

0.777 s

Trigger: L14-L20 (center L17) | Viability U/O: 25% / 75%

Red Bull Racing OVERCUT

Undercut

0.301 s

Overcut

0.740 s

Trigger: L11-L17 (center L14) | Viability U/O: 29% / 71%

Williams OVERCUT

Undercut

0.314 s

Overcut

0.777 s

Trigger: L16-L22 (center L19) | Viability U/O: 29% / 71%

Haas F1 Team OVERCUT

Undercut

0.285 s

Overcut

0.777 s

Trigger: L16-L22 (center L19) | Viability U/O: 27% / 73%

Alpine OVERCUT

Undercut

0.307 s

Overcut

0.494 s

Trigger: L25-L31 (center L28) | Viability U/O: 38% / 62%

Aston Martin OVERCUT

Undercut

0.272 s

Overcut

0.740 s

Trigger: L14-L20 (center L17) | Viability U/O: 27% / 73%

Cadillac OVERCUT

Undercut

0.286 s

Overcut

0.777 s

Trigger: L13-L19 (center L16) | Viability U/O: 27% / 73%

Highlights

Strongest undercut edge is Williams at 0.314s around L16-L22; strongest overcut edge is Ferrari at 0.801s.
0 team(s) project a BALANCED call, while others show clearer bias between undercut and overcut viability.
Highest call asymmetry: Ferrari U/O 9%/91% | Racing Bulls U/O 10%/90%.

Undercut / Overcut Strategy Table

Team	Preferred Call	Trigger Window	Trigger Lap	Undercut Gain (s)	Overcut Gain (s)	Viability U/O
Ferrari	OVERCUT	L14-L20	L17	0.081	0.801	9% / 91%
Racing Bulls	OVERCUT	L24-L30	L27	0.088	0.777	10% / 90%
Audi	OVERCUT	L15-L21	L18	0.290	0.777	27% / 73%
Mercedes	OVERCUT	L25-L31	L28	0.311	0.748	29% / 71%
McLaren	OVERCUT	L14-L20	L17	0.266	0.777	25% / 75%
Red Bull Racing	OVERCUT	L11-L17	L14	0.301	0.740	29% / 71%
Williams	OVERCUT	L16-L22	L19	0.314	0.777	29% / 71%
Haas F1 Team	OVERCUT	L16-L22	L19	0.285	0.777	27% / 73%
Alpine	OVERCUT	L25-L31	L28	0.307	0.494	38% / 62%
Aston Martin	OVERCUT	L14-L20	L17	0.272	0.740	27% / 73%
Cadillac	OVERCUT	L13-L19	L16	0.286	0.777	27% / 73%

Stint Extension Decision Map

Extension recommendation for the opening stint around the first pit window.

Ferrari MARGINAL

Viability

67%

Penalty

0.126 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +2 laps | Window L14-L20

Racing Bulls EXTEND

Viability

80%

Penalty

0.135 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +5 laps | Window L24-L30

Audi MARGINAL

Viability

65%

Penalty

0.081 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +1 laps | Window L15-L21

Mercedes EXTEND

Viability

79%

Penalty

0.158 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +5 laps | Window L25-L31

McLaren MARGINAL

Viability

68%

Penalty

0.189 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +3 laps | Window L14-L20

Red Bull Racing MARGINAL

Viability

58%

Penalty

0.121 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +0 laps | Window L11-L17

Williams MARGINAL

Viability

68%

Penalty

0.189 s

MEDIUM stint | Extend up to +3 laps | Window L16-L22

Haas F1 Team MARGINAL

Viability

68%

Penalty

0.189 s

MEDIUM stint | Extend up to +3 laps | Window L16-L22

Alpine EXTEND

Viability

83%

Penalty

0.162 s

MEDIUM stint | Extend up to +6 laps | Window L25-L31

Aston Martin MARGINAL

Viability

68%

Penalty

0.189 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +3 laps | Window L14-L20

Cadillac MARGINAL

Viability

65%

Penalty

0.081 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +1 laps | Window L13-L19

Highlights

Best extension case is Alpine (EXTEND) with 83% viability and +6 laps on MEDIUM.
Highest extension penalty appears at McLaren (0.189s), so stretching beyond L14-L20 is likely costly.
Extension call mix across teams is EXTEND: 3, MARGINAL: 8, showing how constrained the first-stop phase is.

Stint Extension Table

Team	Stint Tyre	Pit Window	Max Extend (laps)	Penalty (s)	Viability	Call
Ferrari	HARD	L14-L20	2	0.126	67%	MARGINAL
Racing Bulls	HARD	L24-L30	5	0.135	80%	EXTEND
Audi	HARD	L15-L21	1	0.081	65%	MARGINAL
Mercedes	HARD	L25-L31	5	0.158	79%	EXTEND
McLaren	HARD	L14-L20	3	0.189	68%	MARGINAL
Red Bull Racing	HARD	L11-L17	0	0.121	58%	MARGINAL
Williams	MEDIUM	L16-L22	3	0.189	68%	MARGINAL
Haas F1 Team	MEDIUM	L16-L22	3	0.189	68%	MARGINAL
Alpine	MEDIUM	L25-L31	6	0.162	83%	EXTEND
Aston Martin	HARD	L14-L20	3	0.189	68%	MARGINAL
Cadillac	HARD	L13-L19	1	0.081	65%	MARGINAL

Defensive vs Aggressive Mode Map

Race-mode profile based on tactical edge, degradation and stop model.

Ferrari DEFENSIVE

Aggressive

5%

Defensive

95%

Primary trigger L14-L20 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Racing Bulls DEFENSIVE

Aggressive

5%

Defensive

95%

Primary trigger L24-L30 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Audi DEFENSIVE

Aggressive

9%

Defensive

91%

Primary trigger L15-L21 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Mercedes DEFENSIVE

Aggressive

21%

Defensive

79%

Primary trigger L25-L31 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

McLaren DEFENSIVE

Aggressive

9%

Defensive

91%

Primary trigger L14-L20 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Red Bull Racing DEFENSIVE

Aggressive

9%

Defensive

91%

Primary trigger L11-L17 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Williams DEFENSIVE

Aggressive

15%

Defensive

85%

Primary trigger L16-L22 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Haas F1 Team DEFENSIVE

Aggressive

11%

Defensive

89%

Primary trigger L16-L22 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Alpine BALANCED

Aggressive

46%

Defensive

54%

Primary trigger L25-L31 | Flexible call: react to traffic and tyre state.

Aston Martin DEFENSIVE

Aggressive

13%

Defensive

87%

Primary trigger L14-L20 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Cadillac DEFENSIVE

Aggressive

8%

Defensive

92%

Primary trigger L13-L19 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Highlights

Most aggressive profile is Alpine (46%) around L25-L31; most defensive is Ferrari (95%).
Balanced-mode teams are Alpine, indicating higher adaptability to SC/VSC or traffic disruptions.
Primary trigger windows should be treated as action zones, with final call gated by tyre state and release traffic.

Race Mode Table

Team	Mode	Aggressive	Defensive	Primary Trigger	Guidance
Ferrari	DEFENSIVE	5%	95%	L14-L20	Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Racing Bulls	DEFENSIVE	5%	95%	L24-L30	Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Audi	DEFENSIVE	9%	91%	L15-L21	Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Mercedes	DEFENSIVE	21%	79%	L25-L31	Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
McLaren	DEFENSIVE	9%	91%	L14-L20	Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Red Bull Racing	DEFENSIVE	9%	91%	L11-L17	Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Williams	DEFENSIVE	15%	85%	L16-L22	Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Haas F1 Team	DEFENSIVE	11%	89%	L16-L22	Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Alpine	BALANCED	46%	54%	L25-L31	Flexible call: react to traffic and tyre state.
Aston Martin	DEFENSIVE	13%	87%	L14-L20	Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Cadillac	DEFENSIVE	8%	92%	L13-L19	Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Compound Pace Delta Visual

Bar length shows pace deficit to each team's fastest compound projection (s).

Soft Medium Hard

Ferrari

Soft

0.000 s

Medium

3.840 s

Hard

0.915 s

Racing Bulls

Soft

4.280 s

Medium

4.268 s

Hard

0.000 s

Audi

Soft

0.000 s

Medium

4.256 s

Hard

1.927 s

Mercedes

Soft

0.000 s

Medium

3.111 s

Hard

2.229 s

McLaren

Soft

1.841 s

Medium

2.687 s

Hard

0.000 s

Red Bull Racing

Soft

0.000 s

Medium

2.224 s

Hard

0.985 s

Williams

Soft

0.073 s

Medium

0.000 s

Hard

1.772 s

Haas F1 Team

Soft

0.000 s

Medium

0.251 s

Hard

3.355 s

Alpine

Soft

0.000 s

Medium

0.970 s

Hard

1.230 s

Aston Martin

Soft

2.147 s

Medium

0.788 s

Hard

0.000 s

Cadillac

Soft

0.000 s

Medium

4.513 s

Hard

1.475 s

Highlights

Team-best compound split is Hard: 3 team(s), Medium: 1 team(s), Soft: 7 team(s).
Strongest absolute compound delta is Ferrari on Soft (+0.000s to own best baseline).
Top compound-efficient teams: Ferrari (Soft, +0.000s) | Racing Bulls (Hard, +0.000s) | Audi (Soft, +0.000s).

Team Stint Pace By Compound

Team	Soft Pace	Medium Pace	Hard Pace
Ferrari	1:21.115	1:24.955	1:22.031
Racing Bulls	1:25.882	1:25.870	1:21.602
Audi	1:22.239	1:26.496	1:24.167
Mercedes	1:21.844	1:24.955	1:24.073
McLaren	1:24.109	1:24.955	1:22.268
Red Bull Racing	1:23.182	1:25.406	1:24.167
Williams	1:22.692	1:22.619	1:24.391
Haas F1 Team	1:22.692	1:22.943	1:26.047
Alpine	1:22.692	1:23.662	1:23.922
Aston Martin	1:26.314	1:24.955	1:24.167
Cadillac	1:22.692	1:27.205	1:24.167

Team Degradation Outlook

Team	Mean Deg (s/lap)	Avg Expected Stops
Alpine	0.03	1.12
Racing Bulls	0.03	1.16
Mercedes	0.035	1.12
Aston Martin	0.07	1.32
Ferrari	0.07	1.29
Haas F1 Team	0.07	1.27
McLaren	0.07	1.33
Williams	0.07	1.24
Audi	0.09	1.44
Cadillac	0.09	1.45
Red Bull Racing	0.134	1.52