PaddockIQ

Strategy Lab

2025 Round 1 | Australian Grand Prix

Race laps considered: 57

Data basis: current weekend sessions (primary signal) + previous same-GP editions (secondary context).

Hybrid strategy model active | ML train set: 2024 2024-R3, 2023-R3, 2022-R3, 2019-R1, 2018-R1 (37 team-rounds)

Pit Window + Stop Load Map

Pit windows and expected stop load by team.

L1 L10 L19 L28 L38 L48 L57
Ferrari Expected Stops: 1.53
MEDIUM -> HARD
HARD -> HARD
Stop 1 Window: L13-L19 Stop 2 Window: L33-L39
Mercedes Expected Stops: 1.64
HARD -> MEDIUM
MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L12-L18 Stop 2 Window: L29-L35
McLaren Expected Stops: 1.53
HARD -> MEDIUM
MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L13-L19 Stop 2 Window: L33-L39
Williams Expected Stops: 1.53
HARD -> MEDIUM
MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L13-L19 Stop 2 Window: L33-L39
Kick Sauber Expected Stops: 1.59
HARD -> MEDIUM
MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L12-L18 Stop 2 Window: L33-L39
Racing Bulls Expected Stops: 1.63
HARD -> MEDIUM
MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L12-L18 Stop 2 Window: L29-L35
Alpine Expected Stops: 1.52
HARD -> MEDIUM
MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L13-L19 Stop 2 Window: L30-L36
Aston Martin Expected Stops: 1.52
HARD -> MEDIUM
MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L13-L19 Stop 2 Window: L30-L36
Red Bull Racing Expected Stops: 1.52
HARD -> MEDIUM
MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L13-L19 Stop 2 Window: L30-L36
Haas F1 Team Expected Stops: 1.67
HARD -> MEDIUM
MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Stop 1 Window: L12-L18 Stop 2 Window: L29-L35

Highlights

  • Earliest projected first stop is Mercedes (L12-L18); latest is Ferrari (L13-L19).
  • Highest stop load is Haas F1 Team at 1.67 stops, while Alpine is lowest at 1.52.
  • Opening compound paths show early intent: Ferrari: MEDIUM -> HARD, then HARD -> HARD | Mercedes: HARD -> MEDIUM, then MEDIUM -> MEDIUM | McLaren: HARD -> MEDIUM, then MEDIUM -> MEDIUM.

Team Strategy + Pit Stop Forecast

TeamExpected StopsP(1)P(2)P(3+)StrategyPit Window 1Pit1 TyrePit Window 2Pit2 Tyre
Ferrari 1.53 46.9% 53.1% 0.0% MEDIUM -> HARD -> HARD L13-L19 MEDIUM -> HARD L33-L39 HARD -> HARD
Mercedes 1.64 35.5% 64.5% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM -> MEDIUM L12-L18 HARD -> MEDIUM L29-L35 MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
McLaren 1.53 46.8% 53.2% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM -> MEDIUM L13-L19 HARD -> MEDIUM L33-L39 MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Williams 1.53 46.8% 53.2% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM -> MEDIUM L13-L19 HARD -> MEDIUM L33-L39 MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Kick Sauber 1.59 40.9% 59.1% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM -> MEDIUM L12-L18 HARD -> MEDIUM L33-L39 MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Racing Bulls 1.63 37.4% 62.6% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM -> MEDIUM L12-L18 HARD -> MEDIUM L29-L35 MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Alpine 1.52 47.6% 52.4% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM -> MEDIUM L13-L19 HARD -> MEDIUM L30-L36 MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Aston Martin 1.52 47.6% 52.4% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM -> MEDIUM L13-L19 HARD -> MEDIUM L30-L36 MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Red Bull Racing 1.52 47.6% 52.4% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM -> MEDIUM L13-L19 HARD -> MEDIUM L30-L36 MEDIUM -> MEDIUM
Haas F1 Team 1.67 33.1% 66.9% 0.0% HARD -> MEDIUM -> MEDIUM L12-L18 HARD -> MEDIUM L29-L35 MEDIUM -> MEDIUM

Undercut vs Overcut Edge Map

Tactical edge view with trigger timing and viability scores.

Ferrari BALANCED
Undercut
0.304 s
Overcut
0.332 s

Trigger: L13-L19 (center L16) | Viability U/O: 48% / 52%

Mercedes OVERCUT
Undercut
0.091 s
Overcut
0.757 s

Trigger: L12-L18 (center L15) | Viability U/O: 11% / 89%

McLaren UNDERCUT
Undercut
0.425 s
Overcut
0.241 s

Trigger: L13-L19 (center L16) | Viability U/O: 64% / 36%

Williams OVERCUT
Undercut
0.175 s
Overcut
0.506 s

Trigger: L13-L19 (center L16) | Viability U/O: 26% / 74%

Kick Sauber OVERCUT
Undercut
0.086 s
Overcut
0.615 s

Trigger: L12-L18 (center L15) | Viability U/O: 12% / 88%

Racing Bulls OVERCUT
Undercut
0.082 s
Overcut
0.681 s

Trigger: L12-L18 (center L15) | Viability U/O: 11% / 89%

Alpine OVERCUT
Undercut
0.125 s
Overcut
0.707 s

Trigger: L13-L19 (center L16) | Viability U/O: 15% / 85%

Aston Martin OVERCUT
Undercut
0.125 s
Overcut
0.763 s

Trigger: L13-L19 (center L16) | Viability U/O: 14% / 86%

Red Bull Racing OVERCUT
Undercut
0.114 s
Overcut
0.788 s

Trigger: L13-L19 (center L16) | Viability U/O: 13% / 87%

Haas F1 Team OVERCUT
Undercut
0.079 s
Overcut
0.788 s

Trigger: L12-L18 (center L15) | Viability U/O: 9% / 91%

Highlights

  • Strongest undercut edge is McLaren at 0.425s around L13-L19; strongest overcut edge is Red Bull Racing at 0.788s.
  • 1 team(s) project a BALANCED call, while others show clearer bias between undercut and overcut viability.
  • Highest call asymmetry: Haas F1 Team U/O 9%/91% | Mercedes U/O 11%/89%.

Undercut / Overcut Strategy Table

TeamPreferred CallTrigger WindowTrigger LapUndercut Gain (s)Overcut Gain (s)Viability U/O
Ferrari BALANCED L13-L19 L16 0.304 0.332 48% / 52%
Mercedes OVERCUT L12-L18 L15 0.091 0.757 11% / 89%
McLaren UNDERCUT L13-L19 L16 0.425 0.241 64% / 36%
Williams OVERCUT L13-L19 L16 0.175 0.506 26% / 74%
Kick Sauber OVERCUT L12-L18 L15 0.086 0.615 12% / 88%
Racing Bulls OVERCUT L12-L18 L15 0.082 0.681 11% / 89%
Alpine OVERCUT L13-L19 L16 0.125 0.707 15% / 85%
Aston Martin OVERCUT L13-L19 L16 0.125 0.763 14% / 86%
Red Bull Racing OVERCUT L13-L19 L16 0.114 0.788 13% / 87%
Haas F1 Team OVERCUT L12-L18 L15 0.079 0.788 9% / 91%

Stint Extension Decision Map

Extension recommendation for the opening stint around the first pit window.

Ferrari EXTEND
Viability
74%
Penalty
0.248 s

MEDIUM stint | Extend up to +5 laps | Window L13-L19

Mercedes MARGINAL
Viability
67%
Penalty
0.126 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +2 laps | Window L12-L18

McLaren EXTEND
Viability
74%
Penalty
0.248 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +5 laps | Window L13-L19

Williams EXTEND
Viability
72%
Penalty
0.198 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +4 laps | Window L13-L19

Kick Sauber MARGINAL
Viability
69%
Penalty
0.173 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +3 laps | Window L12-L18

Racing Bulls MARGINAL
Viability
67%
Penalty
0.122 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +2 laps | Window L12-L18

Alpine MARGINAL
Viability
70%
Penalty
0.149 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +3 laps | Window L13-L19

Aston Martin MARGINAL
Viability
70%
Penalty
0.149 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +3 laps | Window L13-L19

Red Bull Racing MARGINAL
Viability
70%
Penalty
0.149 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +3 laps | Window L13-L19

Haas F1 Team MARGINAL
Viability
67%
Penalty
0.132 s

HARD stint | Extend up to +2 laps | Window L12-L18

Highlights

  • Best extension case is Ferrari (EXTEND) with 74% viability and +5 laps on MEDIUM.
  • Highest extension penalty appears at Ferrari (0.248s), so stretching beyond L13-L19 is likely costly.
  • Extension call mix across teams is EXTEND: 3, MARGINAL: 7, showing how constrained the first-stop phase is.

Stint Extension Table

TeamStint TyrePit WindowMax Extend (laps)Penalty (s)ViabilityCall
Ferrari MEDIUM L13-L19 5 0.248 74% EXTEND
Mercedes HARD L12-L18 2 0.126 67% MARGINAL
McLaren HARD L13-L19 5 0.248 74% EXTEND
Williams HARD L13-L19 4 0.198 72% EXTEND
Kick Sauber HARD L12-L18 3 0.173 69% MARGINAL
Racing Bulls HARD L12-L18 2 0.122 67% MARGINAL
Alpine HARD L13-L19 3 0.149 70% MARGINAL
Aston Martin HARD L13-L19 3 0.149 70% MARGINAL
Red Bull Racing HARD L13-L19 3 0.149 70% MARGINAL
Haas F1 Team HARD L12-L18 2 0.132 67% MARGINAL

Defensive vs Aggressive Mode Map

Race-mode profile based on tactical edge, degradation and stop model.

Ferrari AGGRESSIVE
Aggressive
58%
Defensive
42%

Primary trigger L13-L19 | Push undercut threat and attack around trigger lap.

Mercedes DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
5%
Defensive
95%

Primary trigger L12-L18 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

McLaren AGGRESSIVE
Aggressive
81%
Defensive
19%

Primary trigger L13-L19 | Push undercut threat and attack around trigger lap.

Williams DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
25%
Defensive
75%

Primary trigger L13-L19 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Kick Sauber DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
5%
Defensive
95%

Primary trigger L12-L18 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Racing Bulls DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
5%
Defensive
95%

Primary trigger L12-L18 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Alpine DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
5%
Defensive
95%

Primary trigger L13-L19 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Aston Martin DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
5%
Defensive
95%

Primary trigger L13-L19 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Red Bull Racing DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
5%
Defensive
95%

Primary trigger L13-L19 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Haas F1 Team DEFENSIVE
Aggressive
5%
Defensive
95%

Primary trigger L12-L18 | Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Highlights

  • Most aggressive profile is McLaren (81%) around L13-L19; most defensive is Mercedes (95%).
  • No team is fully balanced in this projection; race mode is polarized between attack and cover approaches.
  • Primary trigger windows should be treated as action zones, with final call gated by tyre state and release traffic.

Race Mode Table

TeamModeAggressiveDefensivePrimary TriggerGuidance
Ferrari AGGRESSIVE 58% 42% L13-L19 Push undercut threat and attack around trigger lap.
Mercedes DEFENSIVE 5% 95% L12-L18 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
McLaren AGGRESSIVE 81% 19% L13-L19 Push undercut threat and attack around trigger lap.
Williams DEFENSIVE 25% 75% L13-L19 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Kick Sauber DEFENSIVE 5% 95% L12-L18 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Racing Bulls DEFENSIVE 5% 95% L12-L18 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Alpine DEFENSIVE 5% 95% L13-L19 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Aston Martin DEFENSIVE 5% 95% L13-L19 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Red Bull Racing DEFENSIVE 5% 95% L13-L19 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.
Haas F1 Team DEFENSIVE 5% 95% L12-L18 Protect tyre life and cover rivals in the pit window.

Compound Pace Delta Visual

Bar length shows pace deficit to each team's fastest compound projection (s).

Soft Medium Hard
Ferrari
Soft
1.622 s
Medium
0.000 s
Hard
0.288 s
Mercedes
Soft
1.579 s
Medium
0.943 s
Hard
0.000 s
McLaren
Soft
1.556 s
Medium
0.000 s
Hard
0.222 s
Williams
Soft
1.333 s
Medium
0.122 s
Hard
0.000 s
Kick Sauber
Soft
1.333 s
Medium
0.570 s
Hard
0.000 s
Racing Bulls
Soft
1.333 s
Medium
0.684 s
Hard
0.000 s
Alpine
Soft
1.823 s
Medium
0.456 s
Hard
0.000 s
Aston Martin
Soft
1.333 s
Medium
0.454 s
Hard
0.000 s
Red Bull Racing
Soft
1.333 s
Medium
0.558 s
Hard
0.000 s
Haas F1 Team
Soft
1.333 s
Medium
1.356 s
Hard
0.000 s

Highlights

  • Team-best compound split is Hard: 8 team(s), Medium: 2 team(s).
  • Strongest absolute compound delta is Ferrari on Medium (+0.000s to own best baseline).
  • Top compound-efficient teams: Ferrari (Medium, +0.000s) | Mercedes (Hard, +0.000s) | McLaren (Medium, +0.000s).

Team Stint Pace By Compound

TeamSoft PaceMedium PaceHard Pace
Ferrari1:23.6891:22.0671:22.355
Mercedes1:23.6891:23.0531:22.110
McLaren1:23.6891:22.1331:22.355
Williams1:23.6891:22.4771:22.355
Kick Sauber1:23.6891:22.9251:22.355
Racing Bulls1:23.6891:23.0391:22.355
Alpine1:24.1791:22.8111:22.355
Aston Martin1:23.6891:22.8081:22.355
Red Bull Racing1:23.6891:22.9131:22.355
Haas F1 Team1:23.6891:23.7111:22.355

Team Degradation Outlook

TeamMean Deg (s/lap)Avg Expected Stops
Alpine0.0551.52
Aston Martin0.0551.52
Ferrari0.0551.53
McLaren0.0551.53
Red Bull Racing0.0551.52
Williams0.0551.53
Kick Sauber0.0641.59
Racing Bulls0.0681.63
Mercedes0.071.64
Haas F1 Team0.0731.67